GERMANY: DIVIDED AGAIN?

Angela Merkel is back, but the far right has her off balance.

The resurgence of the far right in Germany’s election has horrified many Germans, and surprised many observers. In a country with Germany’s modern history, it seems unavoidably fraught with danger. It is.

But, ultimately, it may be a watershed of a different kind. By snapping Germany — and the rest of Europe — out of their complacency, the election result may be an opportunity. It will finally force the continent’s progressive forces either to confront Europe’s purveyors of hate and division directly, or succumb.

This election was thought to be a cakewalk for German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Running for her fourth term in office, she was widely lauded as the unchallenged leader of Europe’s most powerful nation.

In spite of earlier fears, Europeans in recent elections seemed wary of the various right-wing populist parties that received a boost when Donald Trump was elected U.S. president last November. These parties, even though they increased their support over previous elections, still fell far short of power.

But in Germany’s election, there was a surprise. Although Merkel was re-elected, her Christian Democratic alliance plunged to a historic low of 33-per-cent support, forcing her to seek a coalition with smaller parties.

But most headlines were dominated by Germany’s extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. Its leaders had pushed a xenophobic platform not unlike Trump’s: denouncing immigrants, equating Islam with terrorism, blaming globalization and “outsiders,” and — while we’re at it — urging closer ties with Russia.

The party captured about 13 per cent of the vote, which means that more than 90 members of the party — several of whom are regarded as neo-Nazis — will enter the Bundestag, Germany’s historic parliament. That will make it the country’s third-largest party.

It is revealing where the AfD picked up its support. The party’s greatest gains came in what was formerly communist East Germany. Overall, the party averaged 22 per cent of the vote in the east, more than double what it received in the west.

Ironically, the virulently anti-immigrant party picked up the greatest support from those eastern regions of Germany where immigration is very low — in some cases virtually non-existent. That was a pattern evident in elections in France and the United Kingdom, as well as in the United States.

These voters, as well as being particularly vulnerable to fear-mongering about immigrants, also often come from economically depressed regions. In Germany, the AfD campaigned as a “party of protest,” arguing that mainstream parties were directing the benefits of economic progress to “their” supporters at the expense of other underdeveloped parts of the country.

Related to this, the other stunning outcome of this election was the demise of the centre-left Social Democratic party (SPD). Above all, this is the party that should have succeeded in tapping into the economic anxieties of Germans who have felt excluded from globalization.

But the SPD obtained only 21 per cent of the vote, its worst result since the Federal Republic’s birth in 1949. The party’s dismal performance matches those of other progressive parties in Europe that have lost their traditional working-class support. Their challenge now is to reverse that trend.

The challenge confronting Merkel is a more urgent one. She begins a fourth term as chancellor in a weakened position. Her political dominance in both Germany and the rest of Europe is in question. There is even some speculation now that another election — in early 2018 — may be necessary.

Even more than before, the dark cloud of Trump looms over Europe. His chaotic presidency has been very disruptive to established political parties, and that is why the far right has been so hopeful.

Many observers thought that Merkel would emerge strengthened from the election, and that a budding partnership with France’s new president, Emmanuel Macron, would provide strong leadership of Europe.

But at least for the time being, Macron seems to be on his own. After the German election, Macron delivered a long and detailed outline of his vision for a revitalized Europe. It was overflowing with ideas and ambition.

But it may be months before we learn whether Merkel can get herself off the mat and back in position at Macron’s side. Tony Burman is former head of Al Jazeera English and CBC News.

Strength of far right may force her to confront its rise