Off-season dominoes start with Donaldson
The Blue Jays’ front-office duo of president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins made several good-faith moves as the season wound down, demonstrating to players and fans that 2018 is not going to be a rebuild.
They announced potential free-agent Marco Estrada had agreed to terms on a one-year extension at the same $13million U.S. price tag he’d earned the last two seasons. They spoke to Josh Donaldson in September and he now believes there will be serious negotiations with the Jays, an attempt to sign him to free-agent-type dollars this winter, one year before he officially becomes a free agent. The 2018 class will be one of the deepest in history.
“I try not to look in depth at everything that’s going on (with the team),” Donaldson said, referring to the direction they are headed. “Marco Estrada is a very good pitcher and he should get an extension. He deserves that extension. I’m glad it’s with the Toronto Blue Jays. I appreciate that, and hopefully that will mean that they’re going to continue to believe in this team.”
But if the Jays simply intend to bring back basically the same core group, merely selling hope on “good health” with the five-man rotation and key position players — if they see improved health as the game-changer to becoming a contender — that’s misguided. They need to effect dramatic off-season changes.
The middle-rotation guys, J.A. Happ and Estrada, are OK. Happ had forearm issues for the first time in his career, but finished strong. Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez are the top-of-the-rotation guys, still young and improving, but the Jays are assuming everything will be all right with Sanchez and the blister issues on the middle finger of his right hand. He won’t pick up a baseball until December.
The Jays will need one more starter, and this is where it needs to be dramatic. Joe Biagini does not make them a contender. Neither does Brett Anderson, an oft-injured free agent who will return to the Jays only if a No. 5 spot is guaranteed.
That would be the wrong thing for Atkins to do.
They must go outside the organization, via free agency or trade, to find a proven No. 2 or 3 starter for the short term.
If the 2018 season was to start tomorrow and everyone was healthy, here’s how it would look around the diamond:
C Russell Martin ($20 million, all dollar figures U.S.), 1B Justin Smoak ($4.1M), 2B Devon Travis (arbitration eligible), 3B Donaldson (arbitration), SS Troy Tulowitzki ($20M), LF Steve Pearce ($6.25M), CF Kevin Pillar (arbitration), RF Teoscar Hernandez (MLB minimum), DH Kendrys Morales ($11M).
The Jays need to add a proven No. 2 or No. 3 starter to contend
Of that group, only Pillar, Travis and Hernandez will be younger than 31 in 2018, and Travis has not shown any real ability to stay healthy. Pillar has yet to have his breakout offensive season and Hernandez is still a mystery as a starter, a player to be counted on over 162 games.
The catcher will be 35. Martin played fewer games than in any previous MLB season, and he does not have any protection in a backup role should he be injured again.
Yes, Smoak was a surprise all-star in 2017, but he struggled over the final two months just like Michael Saunders had done the year before. Morales produced decent numbers, but most games he was a non-factor, causing fans to miss the days of Edwin Encarnacion. Then just as fan respect for Morales was set to bottom out, he would have a huge game and bring them back onside. Pearce started slowly, was hurt, bounced back and then was hurt. He is a pedestrian left fielder at best, and has been on the DL in six of eight seasons.
Tulowitzki’s ankle injury was gruesome to watch. That being said, the 33-year-old hopes to be ready for next season after what he admits will be a tough winter of rehab work.
What if he’s not? He played 66 games in 2017 and has averaged just 98 in each of the six seasons since 2011. Is Ryan Goins or Richard Urena the starting shortstop on a cham- pionship team?
That leaves Donaldson as the lone marquee player. He is legit. He is competing for a free-agent pot of gold in 2019. He played 158, 158, 158 and 155 games from 2013 to 2016 before only managing 113 this year, due to a series of injuries that hampered his swing and mobility in the field.
From July 31 until season’s end, a finally healthy Bringer of Rain hit 23 homers, driving in 48 in 51 games with an OPS of 1.121. He finished the season with 33 homers and 78 RBIs. Gold.
Donaldson injured his calf on the first day of spring training by simply running in the outfield. He aggravated it in April and missed 38 games. Even after he returned, it continued to hamper him until late in the season. Coincidentally, it was also the first year the Jays employed a high-performance department to train players. Donaldson plans to return largely to the methods that kept him on the field consistently for his four previous years.
“There’s definitely been some areas where they can help at, but I’m probably going to take more of an initiative in doing what I’m doing on my own, like I have in years past,” Donaldson said.
The Jays opened 2017 with a clubrecord payroll at $163.4 million. With eight guaranteed salaries, 10 arbitration-eligible players and five free agents, there is some flexibility. Changes will need to be made.