Playoff leapt-overs Thanksgiving rarity

Rest of regular season usually gravy for contenders with spots on U.S. holiday

With one quarter of the season over and American Thanksgiving upon us, the NHL’s generals now believe they have learned all they need to know about their teams.

Those over .500 think they’re going to the playoffs and are taking a shorter view of the world around them.

Clubs under .500 — especially the ones that had expected better — are starting to lay the groundwork for change: in players, coaches, executives, even off-season training regimens.

“Thanksgiving is typically a benchmark that GMs use to assess their clubs,” says former Lightning general manager Brian Lawton. “Psychologically, this is the point where each manager starts to wonder about the fate of their clubs this season and what can they do to change it.”

Typically, 13 of the 16 teams in playoff spots on American Thanksgiving —12 on rare occasions — go on to play in the post-season. The number held true last year and it’s been that way going back to at least 1990, the first year the Star looked at to track this trend.

Last year, it was Tampa, New Jersey and Los Angeles that failed to advance after holding a playoff spot on the U.S. holiday — surpassed by Toronto, Boston and Calgary. For the Leafs, it was a historic reversal of fortune. They had typically been one of the teams that got off to a hot start, only to drop out.

For GMs on the outside looking in, it can get emotional.

“Managers start to question the work they did or didn’t get done in the summer,” says Lawton. “They reflect on how that one signing stood in the way of them adding another player. They evaluate how their staffs did in terms of assessing growth and development thus far. They’ll explore the trade market, only to find out prices have increased from what they didn’t want to pay in the summer.”

The November GM meetings, held last week in Montreal, usually mark the starting point for trade talk — nothing serious.

“We’re in and out too quickly,” says Colorado GM Joe Sakic.

One team bogging things down is the Vegas Golden Knights. No one — not even GM George McPhee — could have foreseen the hot start the expansion team is enjoying: 12-6-1 heading into Wednesday night’s date with the Ducks. McPhee had made expansion draft selections with an eye on trading some of his acquisitions, such as sniper James Neal and winger David Perron, for prospects and picks.

“They were expected to be the biggest seller of the year and, as of right now, there’s no way George McPhee can take the fight out of this group by trading players off,” says Lawton.

There have been a couple of big trades already, including Sakic’s Avalanche loading up for the future in a three-way deal that saw Matt Duchene land in Ottawa and Kyle Turris move to Nashville. The Avs continue to tread water, better than expected.

Emotions are running high in Mon- treal and Buffalo, where much more was expected.

The Canadiens lack scoring and have dealt with a long-term injury to goalie Carey Price. The knives may be out for GM Marc Bergevin, who has a habit of acquiring stay-at-home defencemen in the era of the fast, puck-moving blueliner.

The Sabres went through management and coaching changes over the summer, so the heat’s on the players with Jack Eichel feeling it the most after signing an eight-year, $80-million (U.S.) contract extension. Evander Kane — the best thing about the Sabres this season and an unrestricted free agent next summer — is sure to hear his name in trade rumours.

As for underperformers in the West, the moves made by Edmonton GM Peter Chiarelli are under scrutiny. His acquisition of veteran Mike Cammalleri is an acknowledgement that the Oilers offence has to be about more than Connor McDavid. Ateam with patience might be smart to target the slow-to-develop Jesse Puljujarvi, the fourth overall pick of the 2016 draft, if Chiarelli is looking for help now.

Dallas is also struggling despite the off-season addition of stud goalie Ben Bishop, with veteran centre Jason Spezza (making $7.5 million this year and next) the most likely to find his way to a new team if the Stars decide to play for next year.

But of course, the standings are tight and historic realities are easily set aside in some minds.

“Most teams are in a position where they believe: just one hot streak and everything will be just fine,” says Lawton.