THE WEIGHT OF THE WORLD

How Merkel’s agonies in Germany will spread beyond its borders.

Rumours of the imminent demise of German Chancellor Angela Merkel have been greatly exaggerated, as Mark Twain would have put it. But this week’s political drama in Germany will still have crucial implications for Germany and beyond.

If this past week began with Merkel after 12 years in office presiding over a political disaster that put her future in doubt, it appears to be ending with a growing consensus that she will not only survive, but will likely lead her fourth term as German chancellor, if with a minority government. But, rather than being mooted anymore as the unofficial “Leader of the Free World” in the chaotic era of Donald Trump, Merkel will emerge from this week’s wreckage as a diminished political leader. And Germany, with Europe’s biggest economy, rather than being the saviour of the battered international liberal order, will increasingly turn inward.

The political aftershocks to these German developments may also extend far beyond its borders.

At a time when Russia’s Vladimir Putin seems to be in the ascendance, this will likely mean a weaker Europe, a more divided Western alliance and, with Trump wilfully stoking the fire, a more fragmented political culture increasingly vulnerable to the extremist appeals of the far right.

There is an irony here that needs to be noted. However divided it may be politically, Germany is booming in every other way, particularly in contrast to other European countries. Its economy is strong, unemployment is low and one of the most remarkable domestic issues separating the various parties is how to spend Germany’s enormous budget surplus. That is not a problem confronting many other countries. Given that, Merkel was regarded within Germany and elsewhere as a bastion of stability in a world rocked by the divisive Trump presidency.

But that changed in September’s German election. Partly as a backlash to Merkel’s decision in 2015 to admit 1.2 million refugees and migrants, many voters apparently felt otherwise.

The results left Merkel politically wounded. Her conservative party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), was the clear leader, but it won only 33 per cent of the vote, its worst election result since 1949.

Ominously to many Germans, given the country’s Nazi past, the far-right political party Alternative for Germany (AfD) exploited the anti-immigrant backlash to gain 13 per cent of the vote. For the first time, it now sits in Germany’s parliament, the Bundestag, with 94 seats.

The divided election results meant Merkel needed the support of other smaller parties to govern. In normal times, that should not have been impossible, since all German governments have been coalitions since the federal republic was founded in 1949.

But these are not normal times. Germany’s traditional opposition party, the left-leaning Social Democrats (SPD), had been in a coalition with Merkel’s Christian Democrats for the last four years. But they got trounced in the election and vowed they would not join in again.

This meant Merkel needed to seek partners elsewhere to form a government. But after weeks of negotiations, and much to the shock of Germany’s political elite, talks aimed at forming a three-party coalition collapsed last Sunday, leaving Merkel with few options.

One is to call for new elections, and Merkel herself said that she was open to that. But that is seen by other German leaders, including the President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, as a last resort. There is a fear that Germany’s far-right party might benefit even more from a political impasse. A more likely option appears to be pressuring the Social Democrats to support Merkel’s party. If the Social Democrats keep resisting a repetition of the “grand coalition” that marked the last government, an alternative is for the SPD to support a minority government led by Merkel that would provide another term of relative government predictability.

So, if the week began in Germany with a high degree of political alarm, it seemed to end in a much calmer state.

The fact is that Germany now has one of the most stable political systems in the world. It has one of the most successful economic records in all of Europe. It also has in Merkel a political leader who, however damaged in this process, is still supported as chancellor by most Germans in recent polling.

For now, that will be enough to delay her demise to another day.

German chancellor’s electoral wounds will quiet a strong international voice