U.S. eyes Cold War strategy against N. Korea
WASHINGTON— When Defense Secretary Jim Mattis declared on Tuesday that North Korea now had the missile capability to “threaten everywhere in the world, basically,” he hinted at a long-running debate inside the U.S. government: Can the same strategy that worked against the Soviet Union — mutually assured destruction — also work against a far smaller adversary?
The answer is yes, of course it can, if the problem is defined as keeping Pyongyang from unleashing a surprise attack on the continental United States. Or no, it probably cannot, if the problem of containing North Korea is more complex than simply protecting Los Angeles and Washington.
And with North Korea, as the past 70 years of bitter experience have repeatedly shown, almost everything is more complex.
There is no evidence that Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s current leader, or his father or grandfather, ever contemplated getting into a direct nuclear exchange with the United States. Depending on whose estimates one believes, North Korea has 20 to 60 nuclear weapons; the United States has more than 1,500 currently deployed, and thousands more in storage. It would be, as one senior U.S. military strategist put it a few weeks ago, a case of assisted suicide.
But that hardly means nuclear weapons are useless for a 33-yearold leader, who has made clear he has ambitious goals for how he would make use of the power conveyed by a global nuclear reach. If the previous leaders of North Korea were interested mostly in a survival strategy — and saw a small nuclear arsenal as the country’s best guarantee — Kim appears to have far greater ambitions.
South Korea may have all the technology and the money, but the North has a purity of purpose, in Kim’s mind, that will ultimately give it control of the entire Korean Peninsula. And with it, Kim believes, will come the respect of far larger powers that have been waiting, for decades, for the North to be swept away by forces of history.
That goal only works if a U.S. president — President Donald Trump or his successors — contemplates risking Chicago in order to save Seoul. Part of Kim’s vision, some of those who have watched him most closely speculate, is to sow doubt in Asia that the U.S. would really come to their allies’ aid — and splinter the alliance that has teamed up against North Korea for 70 years.
“Kim is determined to be a ‘Great Leader’ in his own right,” said Han Sung-joo, a former South Korean foreign minister, who still walks around carrying shrapnel he was hit with as a young boy, when his family was escaping North Korean forces during the Korean War. “And to do that,” Han said earlier this month, “he needs to accomplish something his grandfather and his father did not: building an intercontinental missile that can strike anyplace in the United States.”
This summer, the Trump administration declared outright that if Kim succeeded in reaching that goal, conventional deterrence would not be enough. In a series of public statements, Trump’s national security adviser, Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, said that the methods that worked so effectively in the Cold War would not apply in the case of North Korea.
It was not clear whether McMaster’s comments were intended to sig- nal a true willingness to go to war, or whether he was simply trying to shake the North Koreans — and the Chinese — into believing that Trump, unlike his predecessors, was perfectly willing to reach for a military solution to the problem. In recent months, McMaster has not repeated those lines, perhaps hoping that a lull in North Korean missile testing might provide a diplomatic opening.
That hope was dashed with the latest, and most impressive, North Korean test. The ballistic missile it set off went roughly 4,500 kilometres into space, before returning to the Sea of Japan. It was intended to demonstrate that the North is now able to reach any corner of the United States. It is not clear whether Pyongyang really can, or whether it could keep a nuclear warhead from burning up in the return to Earth — the real rocket science of launching nuclear missiles.
But one thing is clear: Whatever threats Washington and Beijing issued in the past few months — sanctions and the threat of oil cutoffs — have clearly not deterred Kim. Now he is betting that he can complete his project — solving the last technical details — before the United States, its allies and China can agree upon a unified response.
So far, that bet has proved correct. South Korea’s president, Moon Jaein, has declared there must never be another war on the Korean Peninsula, and suggested he has a veto power over any U.S. decision to use force. (The Trump administration says the South Koreans, while close allies, have no such veto.) Japan has talked a tougher line, but has been within reach of North Korean nuclear weapons for years — and has lived with it, convincing itself that America’s nuclear umbrella has it covered.
Of course, no U.S. official is prepared to admit that the nation is willing to rely on conventional deterrence and live with a North Korean nuclear missile capability that can reach American shores as well. After all, a succession of U.S. presidents, from Bill Clinton to George W. Bush to Barack Obama, have all said that would be intolerable.
But that appears to be where the United States is headed. Although Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said in Beijing at the end of September that he had several lines of communication open to the North Korean leadership, he has left unclear what the goal of any talks with Pyongyang might be. Getting North Korea to completely disarm, his aides conceded, is not remotely possible.