How polling gave Brown a head start
Patrick Brown is toasting the new year with big news; his Progressive Conservatives have signed up a record 200,000 members.
The Tories are also boasting about a banner year for fundraising, taking in $2.35 million in 2017, more than the Liberals and New Democrats combined.
Money and memberships are the oxygen of politics, fuelling the ambitions of an opposition party that dreams of regaining power in the coming June election. It doesn’t get much better than this for the rookie PC leader.
After all, Brown came from out of nowhere to win the party leadership in 2015, outhustling his rivals. After taking the party by storm, he gradually overtook Premier Kathleen Wynne in the public opinion polls — opening up a massive lead at this time last year.
Now, in the home-stretch, Brown should be sitting pretty. Yet one number still doesn’t sit right because the Tories continue to lose ground in public opinion polls.
A year ago, Campaign Research pegged the Tories at a stunning 50 per cent of the vote, with the Liberals trailing at 28 per cent and the NDP stuck at 15 per cent. The poll found that roughly one-third of all Liberal and NDP voters had migrated to the Tory fold, suggesting a landslide victory.
In the months since, that lead has dissipated to the point of disappearing. While the Liberals were given up for dead last year, they are in a dead heat with the Tories this year.
A poll released by Campaign Research last Friday showed the PCs at 35 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 34 and the NDP at 23. They have been neck and neck for months and, while other pollsters still give the Tories more of a lead, the only certainty is volatility among voters.
While Brown’s organizational abilities should not be underestimated, it’s unclear how Ontarians are taking to him. Voters remain evenly split on his approval rating (29-per-cent positive versus 28-percent negative), but far more — 43 per cent — still don’t know, Campaign Research found.
Moreover, the release last November of his 78-page policy platform failed to give the party a bump in the polls. By contrast, recent Liberal policy announcements, notably increased pharmacare up to age 24, and an increase in the minimum wage to $14 on Jan. 1, may account for a slow recovery in Wynne’s abysmally low approval rating, which edged up to 20 per cent in the latest poll. One puzzle is why the New Democrats seem to be stalled at traditional support levels of about 22 or 23 per cent, given that the Liberals are weighed down by so much baggage after 14 years in power. NDP Leader Andrea Horwath continues to get the highest favourable ratings (36 per cent), but 43 per cent “don’t know” — making her almost of much as an unknown, after nearly nine years as leader, as Brown.
For all the limitations of polls in forecasting voter behaviour, they have a more predictable impact on donors and candidates. Brown’s strong polling numbers a year ago added an aura of inevitability and invincibility to the Tories as he personally led a fundraising campaign to retire the party’s multimillion-dollar debt.
High polling numbers also attract ambitious partisans, helping the PCs with recruitment of star candidates and triggering competitive nomination battles in ridings across the province. By contrast, the Liberals were so low in the polls in 2016-17 that they imposed an unofficial moratorium on nomination meet- ings to avoid being stuck with lacklustre candidates at a time that higher calibre people were keeping their distance.
Opinion polls can also influence strategic voting. If voters are keen to defeat the Liberals after 14 years in power, they might be waiting to see which of the PCs or NDP is better placed to dislodge them; or progressives who fear the prospect of a Tory restoration might once again be tempted to abandon the NDP to avoid splitting the left-of-centre vote, if polls show a tight race.
Politicians like to say that the only poll that matters is on election day, but they are only half right. For better or for worse, pre-election surveys play a critical role in setting the table for recruiting candidates and raising money — long before the general public makes up its mind at the ballot box. Martin Regg Cohn’s political column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. mcohn@thestar.ca, Twitter: @reggcohn
A year ago, poll found that roughly one-third of all Liberal and NDP voters had migrated to the Tory fold, suggesting a landslide victory