Striking out on big names leaves cash in play
With three weeks remaining before the start of spring training, the Blue Jays are quietly comfortable in moving forward with an outfield that, though certainly improved over the end of last season, is not championship ready.
The upgrades come via trade with the Cardinals for Randal Grichuk and with the signing of veteran free-agent outfielder Curtis Granderson. But even that new outfield mix could have ended up better. With time running out, manager John Gibbons still requires a midrotation starting pitcher. They do have the cash.
Make no mistake, with those two additions the Jays have gone from arguably one of the American League’s worst outfields to a point where they can convince themselves they’re competitive. The Jays still have the acrobatic Kevin Pillar in centre field and a professional hitter, Steve Pearce, available to platoon in left with Granderson. That competent garden foursome combines to earn just $17.3 million (U.S.)
So how could the Jays outfield situation have been better? Earlier in the off-season, reports from the reliable inner circle of national writers who specialize in player movement were saying that the Jays were serious about ratcheting up their outfield, with the chatter being about a trade for outfielder Christian Yelich from the Marlins and also signing 32-year-old free-agent Lorenzo Cain.
That speculation ended Thursday night. The Brewers, playing in a smaller market and with fewer dollars to spend than the Jays, accomplished both moves. They packaged four prospects — outfielders Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison, plus infielder Isan Diaz and righthander Jordan Yamamoto — for the Marlins’ Yelich. Later that day they signed Cain for five years and $80 million.
The Jays now have Grichuk, Pillar, Granderson and Pearce for $17.3 million instead of Yelich, Pillar, Cain and Pearce for $32.5 million — more money, but more talent. Sure, the off-season is not over. One way GM Ross Atkins can correct the failure is to use that $15.2 million difference to add a mid-rotation starting pitcher and other needed parts.
Atkins could argue it takes two to tango. Maybe Cain, even if the Jays’ offer was comparable in dollars and term, wanted to go to Milwaukee and play on grass, keep spring training in Arizona and maintain a home in the Midwest.
Atkins could reasonably argue the Marlins are the ones who cut the Jays’ talks off, conceding the silver medal to the Jays, after Atkins rightfully refused to begin any Jays package of prospects with potential future franchise player and No. 1 organization prospect Vlad Guerrero Jr. Even with shortstop Bo Bichette likely in the discussion instead of Guerrero, the Brewers, with No. 1 prospect Brinson, who has already played briefly in the majors, earned the Yelich bump.
What kind of a realistic package could the Jays have put together for Yelich that was comparable to Milwaukee’s offer?
According to MLB.com top-30 list, Brinson ranked No. 1 in the Brewers system and No. 13 overall among baseball’s top 100 prospects. Rounding out the eventual winning Marlins offer, infielder Diaz ranked sixth for the Brewers, with outfielder Harrison at No. 14 and Yamamoto outside the website’s top 30.
As for the Jays, it’s difficult to recall any two prospects as closely linked in terms of awareness as Guerrero Jr. and Bichette. Both are sons of major leaguers. Both are extremely talented teenaged hitters who were teammates at Class-A Lansing and Dunedin. They have forever been linked as 1A and 1B in Jays and MLB rankings as future stars. If the Fish wanted Guerrero, the Jays would have offered Bichette. But the Marlins were clearly holding out for any team’s top prospect.
Minus Vlad Jr., what would a comparable Blue Jays offer for Yelich have looked like? The Fort Lauderdale Sun Sentinel reported Yelich’s agent, Joe Longo, told ESPN 10 days ago that the relationship between his client and the team was “irretrievably broken” and that a trade would be best for both sides. The Jays had already pulled the trigger on the Grichuk deal.
With Yelich wanting a trade and with the Jays having scratched their itch, maybe Atkins no longer felt motivated to get back in the mix. Nevertheless, here is a look at play- ers in the Jays system who are comparable to what the Brewers surrendered.
The Brewers gave up Nos. 1, 6 and 14 and another unranked prospect. Brinson played briefly in the majors, with most of 2017 at Triple-A, while the other three prospects maxed out at High-A in the Carolina League. That’s the bar.
Similar Jays prospects would begin with No. 2-ranked Bichette, 20, who is likely to start the season at Double-A and has a target date for the majors early in the 2019 season.
The comparable No. 6, according to MLB.com, is right-handed pitcher Sean Reid-Foley, who spent the season at Double-A New Hampshire. He has a four-pitch repertoire with mid-rotation potential. Even though his 10-11 record and 5.09 ERA in 2017 would not have impressed Marlins fans, he is a Florida kid, which would have helped.
The Jays’ No. 14 prospect at MLB.com is right-hander Eric Pardinho, a 17-year-old Brazilian who would not fit the mould of the player the Marlins needed. However, No. 16 Danny Jansen is a 22-year-old catcher who rushed through Double-A and Triple-A in 2017. With Marlins starting catcher J.T. Realmuto seemingly on his way out of town, that would be a fit.
The fourth piece of that puzzle might include one of the outfielders on the current roster: Pearce, Ezequiel Carrera or Dalton Pompey.
No, the Jays have not had the offseason of roster building that they, or fans, wanted. But the decision to keep Josh Donaldson instead of trading him means they are set to roll the dice until the all-star break before any decision to give up on ’18. They still have time, and they still have money to add pieces, but will they?