The election that starts now

Thanks to Canada’s fixed election schedule, we know the next federal election will be held on Oct. 21, 2019 — a shade less than 20 months from now.

And thanks to Finance Minister Bill Morneau’s third budget, we know the campaign leading up to the vote will be exactly that long — and we even have a pretty good idea of what it will be fought over.

It effectively started on Tuesday when the Liberal government, through Morneau’s budget, made clear that far from trimming its sails mid-mandate, it intends to tack firmly to the left for the foreseeable future.

Quite rightly, it does not intend to take its cue from the reckless corporate tax-slashing of the Trump administration and the Republicans who control the U.S. Congress. That would lead only to a fruitless race to the bottom, one that Canada can never win.

Instead, it’s attempting to ensure that the fruits of an expanding economy are shared more equally and are directed to areas that will encourage both social justice and economic growth — getting more women into the workforce, raising the level of services for Indigenous people, and betting heavily on science and research.

This doesn’t come cheap, and indeed Morneau is planning for $21.5 billion in extra spending over the next five years.

This will disappoint fiscal conservatives worried about the string of deficits the government has been running. But with a strong economy it’s manageable, and the budget forecasts that the ratio between government debt and the whole economy will continue to fall — from 30.4 per cent in 2017-18 to 28.4 per cent by 2022-23. In other words, we can collectively afford this kind of spending as long as the economy keeps doing well.

Encouraging more women to stay in the workforce, and achieve their maximum potential while they are there, makes tremendous sense. The appeal to female voters may pay off politically for the Liberals, but it should also pay off economically for the country as well.

It’s an example of an area where good policy is good politics, and vice versa. Canada’s aging population is one of the main drags on economic growth, and it’s worrisome that women’s participation rate in the workforce has stalled. Anything that can be done to get more women thriving at work will help to counter that. The new “parent sharing benefit” — essentially extra leave to encourage fathers to stay longer at home with new children — is a modest but worthwhile step in that direction.

The government is also setting aside significant new money to fund scientific research — almost $4 billion over five years. This is the kind of long-term investment in the knowledge economy that any government, Liberal or otherwise, should support.

Morneau’s budget is more ambitious than might have been expected for a government in the third year of its mandate. At this point it might well have hedged its bets a bit, preparatory to bringing out an overtly political pre-election budget next spring.

Clearly, we don’t have to wait for that. Barring a dramatic reversal in Canada’s economic fortunes, the Liberals intend to double down on their progressive course and make sure the NDP has little room to gain traction with left-leaning voters.

If there was any doubt, raising hopes for a national pharmacare program puts paid to that. Critics note that there’s no money attached to the initiative, but appointing former Ontario health minister Eric Hoskins to head up an advisory council on options for a national program may turn out in the long term to be the most significant move in this budget.

If it actually leads to action — and of course that’s a very big if — it could be the biggest expansion of national health care since the creation of medicare in the 1960s. But what would be the point of appointing Hoskins unless the Liberals are serious? If there’s no progress by election time, it will count as another failed initiative by the Trudeau government. Voters will have every right to feel let down.

Aside from the obvious political calculations, there’s every reason to press ahead with this plan. The lack of public coverage for prescription drugs is a gaping hole in our health system, and filling it makes both medical and economic sense.

The Trudeau government has put down a big political marker with Hoskins’ appointment. One way or the other, pharmacare is now bound to be a major question in the next election. It’s high time for Ottawa to lead on this crucial issue.

The next federal election campaign effectively started on Tuesday when the government made clear it intends to tack firmly to the left