DANGEROUS GAME
The Maple Leafs have a shot at a long playoff run, but all those shots they allow could cause problems,
Atwo-game trip through Florida — a shootout loss to first-place Tampa Bay, an overtime loss to playoff-desperate Florida — told the Maple Leafs something about themselves.
Toronto managed points against two very good teams who are just as hungry as they are for the post-season. But they continue to allow too many shots, forcing their goalie to make incredible saves and be their most important player each night.
That’s nothing new. Most playoffbound teams harbour an excellent goalie whose job centres on gamesaving stops. The Leafs, though, have been trying to improve their shotsagainst totals all season, without much success. Goalie Frederik Andersen remains the NHL’s leader in shots faced, and he has been the reason Toronto has moved into second place in the Atlantic Division.
The Leafs still want to cut down on those high shot totals, and get better right through the playoffs. Here are a few things worth paying attention to as they enter the stretch run to the post-season:
HIGH-DANGER STATISTICS
Defenceman Jake Gardiner pointed to the shots allowed and said the team would like “to make it easier” on its goalies. But the Leafs play a certain way, with a quick, clean breakout intended so that the team can get speed through the neutral zone. Toronto is one of the more exceptional cycling teams, and is strong in creating scoring chances from in close, passing in close, and confusing goalies and defenceman.
The Leafs certainly give up leagueleading shot totals, but they are 23rd in high-danger goals against. Highdanger stats, as well as scoringchance percentages, are now considered much more definitive than Corsi in terms of pegging a team’s prob- abilities. While the Leafs show a respectable difference in high-danger shots against and goals against, they are also second to Tampa Bay in PDO (shooting plus save percentage). The PDO can suggest a team has a goalie, like Andersen, who covers up mistakes.
But the Leafs also lead the league in high-danger goals, with 81. They’re eighth in scoring-chance percentage, 13th in high-danger shooting percentage, and eighth in high-danger goals percentage. In other words, they have been a team that can live with high shot totals against, because of excellence in goaltending and the high-danger chances they create in the offensive zone.
HEALTH
Auston Matthews health remains an obvious concern for the Leafs. Matthews has now missed three straight games with a shoulder injury. While no official details on the injury have been released, it is believed the damage is more muscular, which could mean two weeks of rest and recovery. Anything beyond that would obviously be more serious.
The injury could be a concern in the heavy going down the stretch and in the playoffs.
Boston also lost its top centre when Patrice Bergeron suffered a bone fracture in his foot during the Bruins’ game in Toronto last Saturday.
FIRST-ROUND OPPONENT
With just over a month left in the regular season, all eyes will turn to the scoreboards. The Leafs are four points back of Tampa Bay in the Atlantic and one ahead of Boston, though the Lightning have played three fewer games and the Bruins five. The teams could finish in any order but, at this point, it looks like the Leafs and Bruins are headed for a first-round clash.
The Leafs have an edge on the Bruins on offence, and with speed, energy and creativity. The goaltending is even, with Andersen and former Leafs prospect Tuukka Rask. And Boston has an edge on layoff experi- ence, defence and physical play.
The Bruins also landed three important players at the deadline, led by forward Rick Nash, while the Leafs added depth centre Tomas Plekanec, but it will be a while before we can judge the impact of the deals.
If these teams meet, it could be the best series of the first round. What could tip the series for the Leafs? Tipped shots. They lead the NHL in deflected shots, with James van Riemsdyk leading the league in tipped goals (10). What could tip if for Boston? Brute power, more experienced goaltending, and stronger defensive play. Boston has given up the fewest goals against in the NHL, and is second in goals against per game.