Dynasties in the age of short-term voter loyalties

End of Liberal reign in Ontario a good occasion to think about what endures in today’s politics

Very few things about modern Canadian politics are as old as the former Ontario Liberal government.

This doesn’t just apply to tenure of parties in power — most other governments in Canada have been switching party colours during the past 15 years — but to the now-standard tools of the political trade, too.

Consider this: The last time that a non-Liberal government was in charge at Queen’s Park, there was no such thing as Facebook (launched in 2004); YouTube (2005); Twitter (2006) or even, yes, iPhones, first unveiled by Steve Jobs in 2007.

In the fall of 2003, when Liberals first took power in Ontario, Stephen Harper hadn’t yet united the right-wing federal parties in Canada and Donald Trump, a New York real-estate magnate, was still months away from the debut of a reality-TV show called The Apprentice.

Back near the beginning of the Ontario election in early May, a veteran Canadian political scientist told me that we probably wouldn’t see political dynasties in this country anymore — parties hanging on to power over multiple decades and multiple leaders.

Voter loyalty just doesn’t last that long in Canadian politics anymore, said Lawrence LeDuc, who taught several generations of political science students at the University of Toronto.

“What we’ve seen in several elections, even the last two federal elections certainly, is that you got very substantial campaign movement over periods of about two or three weeks,” LeDuc said.

What were we talking about again? Oh, yes. Longevity in Canadian politics.

The end of the Ontario Liberals’ 15-year dynasty at Queen’s Park is a good occasion to think about what, if anything, is an enduring feature of politics these days.

Loyalty, clearly, has become fleeting, and the same may well be said about collective public memory and attention span. Last month’s huge scandal can become this month’s vague memory, for even committed consumers of political news. The exception in recent times is former Ontario PC leader Patrick Brown, who must be seeing Thursday’s results as a view of what might have been for him if he hadn’t so quickly resigned at reports of sexually inappropriate behaviour.

This has major consequences for political accountability. If a politician only needs to wait out the shrinking attention of the voters or the media, do consequences now exist for bad political behaviour? Why put policy or budgets in place for the long term when voters keep changing their minds about spending priorities?

The answer to that, sadly, may be found south of the border, in the shortattention-span presidency of Trump and the perpetual, scrolling outrage on Twitter. In just under 600 days in office, Trump has brazened on through multiple major scandals and controversies; any one of which might have toppled a predecessor.

Trump gambles, often correctly, that no one will remember what he said previously, so he doesn’t bother much with explanations about when he changes his mind or states the opposite position later.

It’s called populism, as Trump practises it, but it often hinges on a dim view of the populace — particularly with regard to the public attention span. The better description for this brand of politics might be “short-termism.”

The ironic part of the past Ontario campaign, as several commentators pointed out, is that all the leaders were contending with ghosts: Kathleen Wynne with the memory of her predecessor, Dalton McGuinty; NDP Leader Andrea Horwath with the old Bob Rae government; and Doug Ford, the new premier-to-be, with memories of the old Mike Harris Conservative years.

Attacks along these lines presumed a lot about the long-term memory of voters in the era of short-termism. When last week is a distant memory, who votes based on what happened a couple of decades ago in Ontario?

Less than six months ago, Doug Ford was planning a run for the mayor’s job in Toronto. Three months ago this week, many pundits said his leadership win was a gift to the Liberals — the contender that Wynne could most probably defeat. This weekend, Ford is preparing to become the next premier of Ontario.

But if he’s smart, Ford is not planning for a new dynasty at Queen’s Park. Seeing politics through a long lens may be a relic of another era in Canadian politics.

Last month’s huge scandal can become this month’s vague memory, for even committed consumers of political news