Knockout punch
Soccer heavyweights (sorry, Germany) enter sudden death
As the World Cup reaches the knockout stage, starting Saturday with two games, the high drama that defined the round robin will be hard to match. Group play, which came to a close on Thursday, had everything the rabid supporter or neutral fan could want: big wins, monumental upsets, last-gasp goals and endless arguments about controversial plays. There was a 5-0 win by host Russia over Saudi Arabia to open the tournament, the favoured Germans making an unexpected early exit, a desperation goal by Argentina to stay alive, and a whopping 335 incidents — nearly seven per game — checked out by the new video assistant referee (VAR) system, leading to 14 on-field reviews. After all that, however, the field for the round of 16 contains few surprises. Spain and Brazil remain the favourites, according to online bookmaker Bet365, with Belgium and France still among the top contenders. With everything on the line, expect more open matches as teams are forced to attack more often to stay alive. Still, as the old axiom goes, defence win championships.
FRANCE VS. ARGENTINA Saturday, 10 a.m. (TV: all matches on TSN)
France made difficult work of a group it should have dominated, but still topped the standings in the end, while Argentina needed a goal in the 86th minute of its final group game to advance. One of the most anticipated matches of this round could be a cagey affair with neither team at its best thus far. France is more wellrounded and, after facing three defence-minded teams, should be in shape to find openings against Argentina’s more attacking style. Argentina will, of course, rely heavily on Lionel Messi, who despite some moments of brilliance — including his lone goal, against Nigeria — has struggled to carry the load.
Pick: France
URUGUAY VS. PORTUGAL Saturday, 2 p.m.
Uruguay is one of three undefeated teams, while Portugal’s second-place finish in Group B was decided by tiebreaker based on goals. Cristiano Ronaldo has led the charge for Portugal with four goals, including all three in a tie with rival Spain. While Portugal needs more than Ronaldo to win it all, the attacker will have to continue to play a big role in any success. Uruguay has yet to be challenged, while Portugal’s ability to overcome adversity against strong opposition in Spain, Morocco and Iran could pay off at this stage. Still, Uruguay is the only team yet to give up a goal, plus strikers Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani could match Ronaldo up front.
Pick: Portugal
SPAIN VS. RUSSIA Sunday, 10 a.m.
Spain won Group B based on total goals, while Russia surprisingly secured a place in the round of 16 with two emphatic wins before a 3-0 defeat to Uruguay. The host nation could be in for a rude awakening against one of the tournament’s favourites. Though Spain has struggled defensively, giving up five goals (tied for the most among countries that advanced), the 10th-ranked squad should have no problem against No. 70. Pick: Spain
CROATIA VS. DENMARK Sunday, 2 p.m.
Croatia won all three group games, while Denmark tied twice before a win over Peru. The Croatians were pre-tournament dark horses, but after a strong showing in the group stage — including a 3-0 thrashing of Argentina — they’re legitimate contenders. Denmark has taken a conservative approach and played to the only goal-less tie, with France. Denmark has a solid goalkeep- er in Kasper Schmeichel, but will have to take more risks against attack-minded Croatia.
Pick: Croatia
BRAZIL VS. MEXICO Monday, 10 a.m.
Brazil started slowly, tying Switzerland before finishing with two wins. Mexico stunned Germany early, then needed help from South Korea to advance after finishing the group stage with a 3-0 loss to Sweden. If Carlos Vela, Hirving (Chucky) Lozano and company expect to have a chance against Brazil’s deep squad, they’d do well to replicate the defensive organization and probing counter-attacks that outfoxed the Germans.
Pick: Brazil
BELGIUM VS. JAPAN Monday, 2 p.m.
Belgium had three wins and a goal difference of plus seven, the best record of any team, while Japan was one of two teams to advance after managing just four points in the round robin. Romelu Lukaku has four goals in less than two games for Belgium to date. That’s the same number Japan scored — and conceded — in the group stage. The Japanese have a mountain to climb. Look for the Belgians to create the bulk of the chances, and the Japanese to try their luck on the counter. Pick: Belgium
SWEDEN VS. SWITZERLAND Monday, 10 a.m.
Sweden unexpectedly topped Group F, thanks to a dismal showing by Germany and a big win over Mexico to wrap up the round robin. Tying Brazil was impressive, but Costa Rica less so for the Swiss. A win over Serbia was the key. Switzerland entered the World Cup ranked No. 6 in the world with Sweden No. 24, but the Swedes have the momentum after a thorough 3-0 victory over Mexico. The Swiss, whose lone win was bookended by a pair of ties, will look to quell high-flying Sweden early and take control.
Pick: Sweden
ENGLAND VS. COLOMBIA Monday, 2 p.m.
England beat Panama and Tunisia, but fell to Belgium. Colombia lost to Japan before knocking off Poland and Senegal. The big question is the health of Colombian star James Rodriguez. Coach Jose Pekerman was quoted as saying he’s “extremely concerned” about the attacking midfielder, who went off with a calf injury after 30 minutes in the groupstage finale. England should be well rested after coach Gareth Southgate gave several starters a break against Belgium.
Pick: England First-round record: 13-3