Abortion win could backfire on Republicans
Trying to overturn historic ruling could push voters to back Democrats
WASHINGTON— Republicans are closer than ever to achieving a U.S. Supreme Court majority to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade abortion-rights ruling.
But getting there carries a hidden risk for the party.
Anominee who appears ready to cast the decisive vote against Roe could rally the majority of Americans who back legal abortion to turn out for Democrats in the November election, where Republicans are trying to keep control of the House and Senate.
“Now they’re the dog that caught the car,” said Joshua Wilson, a political scientist at the University of Denver and author of the 2016 book The New States of Abortion Politics.
“Here’s the opportunity to do the thing that anti-abortion advocates have wanted to do for decades. And it’s really risky because their base really wants this but the majority of Americans don’t. So this could really mobilize Democratic voters.”
U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday he’ll announce his nominee to replace retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy on July 9, and he’s narrowed the search to about five finalists, including two women.
For three decades, Republicans have successfully used the abortion issue to mobilize the religious right, whose support proved critical in Trump’s 2016 election.
The president — who in 2016 promised to pick justices who would overturn Roe — has a historic opportunity to alter the court’s ideological balance with a more conservative nominee. But Trump may keep in mind where broader public opinion lies, ahead of an election where a surge of voter enthusiasm among women is endangering his party’s grip on Congress.
Views on abortion have been steady over the last four decades. Few Americans want it to be outlawed.
A May 2018 Gallup poll found that 18 per cent want abortion to be illegal in all circumstances, while 50 per cent want it to be legal in some circumstances and 29 per cent say it should be legal in all circumstances.
A poll released Friday by the non-partisan Kaiser Family Foundation tackled the question of Roe more pointedly in the context of the Supreme Court battle.
Just 29 per cent of Americans said they want to see Roe overturned, while 67 per cent said they would not, including 81per cent of Democrats, 73 per cent of independents and 43 per cent of Republicans.
The president told reporters Friday that when he interviews potential nominees he won’t ask about Roe. “They are generally conservative,” he said. “I’m not going to ask them that ques- tion, by the way.”
White House legislative director Marc Short and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, said they hope to confirm a new justice in time for the Supreme Court’s next session, which begins on the first Monday of October.
If Trump nominates someone whose views on abortion aren’t publicly known, senators are certain to ask, even though Supreme Court nominees are coached to avoid answering how they would rule.
“It all comes down to abortion and Roe v. Wade. And it’s ridiculous but that’s the way it is,” said Sen. Orrin Hatch, a Utah Republican and former judiciary committee chair.
“I would like to see it overturned but I’ve always been that way. I think it’s one of the worst decisions ever made by the court.”
Republicans have a 51-49 majority in the Senate.