What’s getting Torontonians to the polls
Transit and traffic are key factors, but not Ford’s move to shrink council
It dominated news headlines for weeks, got tangled in court and seemed to be the daily dinnertime topic.
Yet the unprecedented move by Ontario Premier Doug Ford to cut the size of Toronto city council nearly in half — to 25 wards from 47 — doesn’t appear to be an important issue for city residents ahead of the municipal election, at least when compared to public transit, traffic and community safety.
This is according to research from the Canadian Municipal Election Study, the largest project of its kind, which looks at people’s perceptions of municipal politics, particularly before and after elections.
“We found residents are generally opposed to the redistricting of wards, but it’s not the defining issue in this election,” said Michael McGregor, the study’s principal investigator and assistant professor at Ryerson University’s Department of Politics and Public Administration. The Toronto data, which McGregor provided exclusively to the Star, is drawn from survey responses given by approximately 1,400 randomly chosen Torontonians. The online surveys were conducted by Forum Research between Sept. 27 and Oct. 15. and paid for by the Canadian Municipal Election Study, which is funded by federal and provincial grants.
McGregor, who analyzed the data, said the results provide a snapshot of how Toronto residents think about municipal politics and what is motivating them in the 2018 election.
Last year, McGregor’s team surveyed residents before and after municipal elections in Calgary, Montreal and Quebec City.
This year, the study is focusing on Vancouver, Winnipeg, London, Mississauga and Toronto.
“Researchers do large studies for federal and provincial elections, but the majority of elections in our country are municipal elections,” McGregor said. “These local governments make important decisions about our lives, and we (through this study) want to understand how people make decisions and form attitudes about this important level of government.”
Here are five need-to-know things from McGregor’s ongoing Toronto research that shed some light on issues that might drive us to the polls and why we might — or might not — vote on Oct. 22. Do we care?
McGregor’s take: “We ask this question because we know interest in politics is related to voter turnout, which is often quite low. And we generally know people are less interested in local politics compared to other levels; we’re trying to figure out why this is. This year, low interest (at the municipal level) may be linked to the perception of the race itself. If it’s a less competitive race, voter turnout tends to be lower. And this mayoral race (between the leading candidates) is not seen as competitive, it’s not polarizing or controversial, which is potentially contributing to this low level of interest.” Do we feel obliged to vote?
McGregor’s take: “There is evidence to suggest the best predictor of whether or not someone votes is if they have a sense of duty as a citizen to vote. The data here shows we think municipal voting is less of a duty than at other levels of government, so there is room to change that and, hopefully, boost turnout.” Province vs. the city
In July, Doug Ford slashed the size of Toronto council from a 47-ward council to one with 25 wards. Local politicians and many residents were outraged over the cuts, especially since the unprecedented move came during an ongoing municipal election. McGregor’s team was curious to see whether the changes to Toronto council is a motivating factor in the 2018 municipal election.
McGregor’s take: “On balance, people don’t like the idea of ward redistricting. Less than 40 per cent agree or strongly agree that the change is a good thing. Even fewer think that the province should have the power to unilaterally make the changes. But (according to another survey question) the issue isn’t viewed as that important amid other election concerns.” What issue will send us to the polls? McGregor’s take: “The change in city council ward boundaries is not top-of-mind for voters; it’s by far the least important issue here. Which tells me that perhaps it’s an issue academics and the media like to focus on, but it’s not as much of a focus for voters. Also, both leading mayoral candidates are opposed to the ward redistricting, so it can’t be a defining issue in this campaign. It’s no surprise that public transit is top of mind. It’s perennially a huge issue in the city; people need to get around. Transit has been a focus of the (leading mayoral) candidates; they and their campaigns recognize how important it is to voters.” How do we perceive the leading mayoral candidates?
McGregor’s take: “What is interesting here is that people don’t rate John Tory or Jennifer Keesmaat too differently, but there is a huge gap in their perceived competitiveness. What does that mean? Overall, the population doesn’t have a huge preference for Tory, but they do expect him to win. As for how people perceive them on an ideological scale, Tory is clearly on the right and Keesmaat is clearly on the left. What does that tell us? Our data have shown that in local politics, the personal characteristics of candidates can be more important than policy promises.” The Canadian Municipal Election Study data was collected by Forum Research between Sept. 27 and Oct. 15. Respondents were recruited through random digital dialing via telephone, then sent a link to complete the survey online.
A total of 1,487 people completed the survey and the data was weighted for age and gender to match the most recent census.