Is electoral reform finally taking root in Canada?

MONTREAL— To follow the Canadian electoral reform debate is akin to keeping track of a game of whack-a-mole.

No sooner is the issue put down in one political venue that it pops up somewhere else.

And so it is that proposals to do away with the first-pastthe-post voting system are currently live in two provinces — British Columbia and Quebec — with a third — Prince Edward Island — scheduled to ask its voters when they go to the polls in the fall whether they want to move to a mixed-member proportional system.

Canada has seen this movie before.

Had Prime Minister Justin Trudeau honored his pledge to ensure the 2015 election was the last to be held under the current system, we would be mere months away from using a new voting method to elect the members of the next Parliament.

Over the past two decades, at least half the provinces have dabbled with electoral reform. In none did the implementation of a new voting system reach the finish line.

So why should the ending be different this time?

For one, common sense suggests that if pressure to change the system has not abated despite the best efforts of supporters of the status quo, the dam will eventually break.

It might take just one province — particularly if that province were one of the more populous ones — to have a successful trial run at using a more proportional voting method to trigger a domino effect.

The latest string of provincial elections has seen a rise in the support for smaller parties. Earlier this month, Québec Solidaire more than tripled its seat count in the Quebec national assembly. The presence of the Green party has increased in a number of provincial legislatures.

Those parties share an interest in advancing the cause of proportional representation. And they draw a good chunk of their support from millennials, the voting cohort that is about to dominate the electorate.

It is not a coincidence that proportional representation is more on the radar in some of the provinces where the influence of smaller parties has been on the rise.

Here is an abbreviated look at the state of play.

P.E.I. actually polled its voters on a variety of options and 52 per cent supported a mixedmembers proportional system. But participation was low — less than 40 per cent — and the ruling provincial Liberals set aside the result until the question could be put to voters in next fall’s provincial election.

Support for the Greens is nowhere higher than in Canada’s smallest provinces, with polls putting the party in contention for power in Charlottetown. There could be history in the making in P.E.I.

As of this week, B.C. — where the Green party has the balance of power in the provincial legislature — is holding a mailin referendum. Unless Canada Post labour disruptions force a delay, voting is set to end on Nov. 30.

This is B.C.’s third kick at the can. The young British Columbians who are eligible to vote for the first time in this plebiscite were entering kindergarten the first time the province asked the question.

There is not one specific alternative on the ballot. Instead voters are asked to pronounce on whether they want to abandon the first-past-thepoll system and then to pick one of three substitute options.

Should change win the day, the calendar could still play tricks with the plan. The move to a different system would not happen until after July 1, 2021. B.C.’s current minority NDP government may not last that long.

Prior to this month’s Quebec election, three of the four parties in the national assembly, including the victorious Coalition Avenir Québec, pledged to replace the firstpast-the-post system in time for the province’s 2022 campaign.

The promise is not contingent on the results of a referendum and all parties to the pledge have agreed on a mixedmember proportional representation. The devil may be in the many details that have yet to be discussed. Still, Quebec could be on a faster track to electoral reform than any other province.

On the day of the swearing-in of his government earlier this month, Premier François Legault reiterated his intention to bring in the relevant electoral reform legislation within the year.

The only way for Legault to wiggle out of the promise would be to renege on his word to voters and to his opposition partners. The latter could not force a CAQ majority government to honour its commitment. But Trudeau’s broken promise is still fresh in many minds and it is an example the incoming Quebec premier has said he would not follow.

Smaller parties, which are growing, share an interest in proportional representation