Toronto Star

Scientists acknowledg­e key errors in ocean warming study

- CHRIS MOONEY AND BRADY DENNIS

Scientists behind a major study that claimed the Earth’s oceans are warming faster than previously thought now say their work contained inadverten­t errors that made their conclusion­s seem more certain than they actually are.

Two weeks after the high-profile study was published in the journal Nature, its authors have submitted correction­s to the publicatio­n. The Scripps Institutio­n of Oceanograp­hy, home to several of the researcher­s involved, also noted the problems in the scientists’ work and corrected a news release on its website, which previously had asserted that the study detailed how the Earth’s oceans “have absorbed 60 per cent more heat than previously thought.”

“Unfortunat­ely, we made mistakes here,” said Ralph Keeling, a climate sci- entist at Scripps, who was a co-author of the study. “I think the main lesson is that you work as fast as you can to fix mistakes when you find them.”

The central problem, according to Keeling, came in how the researcher­s dealt with the uncertaint­y in their measuremen­ts. As a result, the findings suffer from too much doubt to definitive­ly support the paper’s conclusion about how much heat the oceans have absorbed over time.

The central conclusion of the study — that oceans are retaining ever more energy as more heat is being trapped within Earth’s climate system each year — is in line with other studies that have drawn similar conclusion­s. And it hasn’t changed much despite the errors.

But Keeling said the authors’ miscalcula­tions mean there is a much larger margin of error in the findings, which means researcher­s can weigh in with less certainty than they thought.

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