RAPS VS. LEAFS
Which franchise has the best chance to win Toronto a championship this season? Damien Cox weighs in,
Two teams, each a serious championship contender.
The Raptors have the best record in the NBA and are off to the best start in franchise history. The Maple Leafs have won 19 of their first 27 games for the first time since the 1930s and the days of the Kid Line, and as of Monday were second overall in the NHL.
Heady stuff for both squads, and extraordinary days for Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment. MLSE may have won Major League Soccer and Grey Cup titles in 2017, but this is an entirely different stratosphere of professional sports competition.
Win an NBA title? Win a Stanley Cup? You’re talking about making an indelible mark in Toronto sports history like the ’92 and ’93 Blue Jays.
So which one, the Raps or Leafs, has the better shot of actually winning it all? For each point you can make in favour of one team, there is a counterpoint in favour of the other. To wit:
Kawhi Leonard is a former MVP of the NBA final. The Maple Leafs don’t have a player like that.
Leonard was the straw that stirred the drink for San Antonio in 2014, and one player can improve a team in the NBA more than in the NHL, unless that player is a goalie. The counterpoint on behalf of the Leafs would be that the acquisition of free-agent centre John Tavares last summer meant more to that team because Tavares, although he’s only ever played 24 playoff games, cost the Leafs only money. He was a straight addition. Getting Leonard forced the Raps to subtract DeMar DeRozan and Jakob Poeltl.
It’s easier to win a Stanley Cup because there is no team in hockey remotely as talented as the Golden State Warriors are in the NBA.
Definitely true, and you could probably lump 10 NHL teams together and not be surprised if any one of them won the Cup. The hard cap has ended any chance of developing a truly great team. For the Raps, the counter is that the NBA East, with Cleveland now terrible, will be easier to get out of this year than the NHL’s Eastern Conference. If Toronto could get to the NBA final, injuries might yet cut the Warriors down to size.
The resurgence of Serge Ibaka has transformed the way the Raps look up front.
Ibaka, playing more of his natural position at centre, and given more room to operate because of the way the Raptors now spread the floor, is having a major bounce-back season. The Leafs, however, have a younger veteran, Morgan Rielly, possibly having a Norris Trophy-type season from the back end, which is the team’s weakest part. Who is more important to their team, Ibaka or Rielly? Another interesting debate.
Auston Matthews is the kind of under-25 generational talent the Raptors simply don’t have.
Given that the Raps haven’t drafted in the top five since 2011 (Jonas Valanciunas), this should not be a surprise. All that said, Pascal Siakam (27th overall in 2016) is turning out to be the best low first-round pick in Raptors history, maybe one of the best in league history. He’s not Matthews, but he’s healthier more often.
The Raptors’ biggest problem — turnovers — is fixable as the season moves along. It’s probably more fixable than the Leafs’ tendency to give up too many shots, 33.6 per game (26th in the NHL), which is largely the product of having a lot of young forwards and defencemen.
On his own, Kyle Lowry, an all-star guard, can have a major impact on the Raptors’ turnover numbers, currently at 15 per game (20th in the NBA). That said, Leafs goalie Freddie Andersen can, on his own, repair essentially any mistake made in front of him and make that shots-against figure all but meaningless. He’s doing that these days, but doing it into June is a huge ask.
Mitch Marner is half-man, half-wizard, a slightly-built athlete who is the most creative player in the city in any sport.
Marner could win the scoring title, and the Leafs power play revolves around him at the right faceoff circle. The Raps don’t have an equivalent, but guard Fred VanVleet is getting back to where he was last year, when he was playing so well and so creatively that many believed he could start for several other NBA teams. VanVleet, also a small man in his sport, brings a stoicism and toughness than really helps.
The Raptors can put out a wide assortment of lineups featuring multiple “three and D” players who can shoot the three-pointer and play suffocating defence. That’s where the NBA is going, and the fact Toronto sits on top of the league shows they’re executing that as well as anyone right now.
The Leafs can counter with excellent depth: three lines that can score when William Nylander is back. Down the middle the threesome of Matthews, Tavares and Nazem Kadri causes nightmares for other teams. Kasperi Kapanen is third on the team with 10 goals, but he’ll probably be busted down to third-line duty once Nylander is back. That’s depth.
Mike Babcock might be the best coach in the NHL. Nick Nurse is still on probation.
Babcock has been one of the best expenditures the Leafs have made in the Brendan Shanahan era. He drives this team hard, demands consistency, and his record of NHL and international success is unquestioned. Nurse? He’s been part of two D League champions, and so far this season has done impressive work, particularly giving the Raps a different look by rarely putting Ibaka and Valanciunas on the floor together. He was the NBA coach of the month for November, and at this rate he could win coach of the year.
What does this all add up to? The presence of Leonard and the move of LeBron James to L.A. suggests this could be the Raptors’ year to get to the NBA final, while playing in the NHL’s best division may force the Leafs to beat two elite teams just to get to the Eastern Conference final.
So give the Raps a slight edge based on the task they face. That said, this city would happily celebrate either. Those champion Jays teams could use some company.
Damien Cox’s column normally runs on Tuesday and Saturday