Why you can expect to fork over less for your meat in 2019,

Annual study links drop in prices next year to decline in consumption

HALIFAX— Canadians can expect to pay more for their veggies in 2019, but they’ll be forking over fewer dollars at the meat and fish counters.

That’s one of the findings from Canada’s Food Price Report for 2019. The report was released Tuesday and forecasts what Canadians are likely to pay for their food in the coming year.

A collaboration between Dalhousie University and the University of Guelph, this marks the first time in the report’s nine-year history that meat and seafood prices are forecast to drop.

The report’s authors suggest the dip in meat prices is due in part to a forecasted and continued decline in demand. They also “strongly believe” meat prices will “spiral downwards” until 2020 as consumers continue to reduce or eliminate their meat consumption.

“Since we’re in Nova Scotia, I think that 2019 is a year of opportunity,” said Dalhousie University Prof. Sylvain Charlebois, one of the report’s lead authors.

“There’s going to be a lot of consumers out there looking for alternative sources of pro- tein, and we are expecting fish and seafood to attract more consumers by offering affordable prices.”

When it comes to vegetables, Canadian consumers are looking at an increase of 4 to 6 per cent in the coming year.

“Last year we were predicting the same thing and it did happen, unfortunately,” he said.

Charlebois said the anticipated hike in vegetable prices can be linked to climate change, with global agriculture expected to remain “highly vulnerable” to severe weather patterns.

While El Nino will likely bring heavier precipitation to South America and Asia, he said, North America is expected to endure drier conditions, which could lead to reduced water access.

“We procure a lot of our vegetables from North America and that’s why we’re expecting a hike of 4 to 6 per cent,” he explained.

The report suggests that based on a “healthy” food cart, a family can expect to pay $411 more on food next year when compared with 2018. That means an average annual food budget in 2019 of $12,157, a figure that includes everything from groceries to eating out.

“We are also expecting food inflation to go up in 2019, unfortunately, but with gas prices as they are now, consumers are getting a bit of a break at the pump right now,” Charlebois said.

Looking across the country, Charlebois said the Prairie provinces and in particular Alberta will feel a bit of a crunch.

He predicts the Atlantic provinces will be in for “a steady as she goes sort of year” in 2019, while in Quebec and Ontario food inflation will likely follow the national average. In 2018, Ontario was the province that saw the highest increase in food prices, with a rise of 2.7 per cent.