How did Brexit get to be the mess it is?
U.K. faces chaos without deal, but British politicians reject the withdrawal’s ‘backstop’
LONDON— Tuesday was supposed to be the day that Britain’s battle over Brexit was resolved.
Parliament was supposed to approve a plan painstakingly worked out by Prime Minister Theresa May and the European Union for Britain’s orderly departure from the 28-nation bloc.
But the road out of the EU has been anything but smooth as Britain heads for the Brexit ramp.
Tuesday’s vote was postponed by May, who acknowledged that a “significant majority” of lawmakers would oppose it. Instead, she spent the day shuttling through European capitals, seeking changes to the deal to try to win over skeptical legislators before Britain leaves the EU on March 29.
What is at stake
Britain can leave without a deal, but it won’t be pretty. Departure will tear up thousands of laws and rules stitched together over more than four decades. If Britain and the EU can’t agree on what will replace them, there could be chaos. Planes would lose permission to fly, medicine supplies could run short. British officials have warned of gridlock at ports, the need to charter vessels to bring in essential goods, and shortages of imported foodstuffs.
The sticking point
One issue has proved intractable: the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, which will be the U.K.’s only land border with the EU after Brexit.
During Northern Ireland’s decades of violence, the border bristled with soldiers, customs posts, smugglers and paramilitaries. But since a 1998 peace accord, the border has become all but invisible.
Brexit could end all that, disrupting lives and businesses on both sides of the border and potentially undermining the peace process.
To avoid that, the withdrawal agreement includes a border guarantee, known as the “backstop.” It stipulates that if no other solution can be found, the U.K. will remain in a customs union with the EU after Brexit to avoid a hard border. Both sides hope the backstop will never be needed: The agreement gives them until 2022 to reach a permanent new trade deal that could render it unnecessary.
But pro-Brexit British politicians hate the backstop, because Britain can’t get out of it unilaterally; it can only be ended by mutual agreement.
Pro-EU lawmakers hate it, too, because it leaves Britain subject to rules it has no say in making — an inferior position to remaining in the bloc, they say.
What’s next
The British government says it plans to bring the deal, with whatever changes May achieves, back to Parliament for a vote before Jan 21. If it passes, the European Parliament is expected to approve it. If it fails, Britain is in uncharted waters. And if May’s plan falls, it’s likely she will, too — either at the hands of her own Conservative Party or with her government in a no-confidence vote that would trigger a national election. Then it would fall to her successor to try to sort out Britain’s Brexit mess.