Bill Belichick’s schemes to shut down the Los Angeles Rams’ offence could be the difference-maker in Super Bowl LIII,
Rams best on paper, but Pats have Brady, Belichick, five titles
Everyone seems to be in agreement on what type of game Super Bowl LIII will be: It will be close, and there should be lots of scoring. The video game Madden 19 did its simulation, and had the Los Angeles Rams beating the New England Patriots 30-27. CBS analyst Tony Romo said the final score will be 28-24, but didn’t pick a winner. He predicted that the team that loses will have the ball last.
The type of game is easy to predict. Picking the winner isn’t. On paper, the Rams have more talent. In reality, the Patriots have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. New England’s five Super Bowl wins have all been close, with margins of six points, four points and three points (three times).
So what will be the deciding factors Sunday?
BELICHICK’S DEFENCE
New England’s head coach often gets credited for his ability to identify his opponent’s biggest threat on offence, and create a game plan to shut it down. The Rams’ biggest threat is running back Todd Gurley, who was the centrepiece of the L.A. offence all season, but has struggled in the playoffs since returning from a knee injury.
But if Gurley is indeed back to his old form, Belichick can look to his former defensive co-ordinator for the blueprint on how to slow him down. In early December, the Rams beat the Lions 30-16, but Detroit head coach Matt Patricia, a Belichick disciple, crafted a game plan to keep Gurley from breaking off big plays on the outside. In the passing game, the Lions matched L.A.’s three-wide-receiver sets by deploying zone coverage and blitzing the middle linebacker to rattle quarterback Jared Goff, who threw for just 207 yards, with one touchdown and one interception.
The Patriots will likely play more man coverage than the Lions, but Belichick will have had two weeks to install a mix of zone and man-to-man to confuse Goff, who hasn’t been the same quarterback since wide receiver Cooper Kupp suffered a season-ending injury.
SUH AND COMPANY
The Rams’ offence got more attention during the season, but its defence has starred in the playoffs. Some coaches said they didn’t think Ndamukong Suh was playing particularly hard in his first year with the Rams, and his pedestrian stats (4.5 sacks) backed up the assertion. That seems to have changed significantly the last two games, and it could make a big difference Sunday. Just as important as L.A.’s run defence will be the ability of Suh and Donald — who is the best interior lineman in the game — to generate an inside pass rush that throws Brady off his game.
TODD GURLEY
Who knows what the Rams have in Gurley this late in the season? L.A. has insisted that Gurley’s knee injury is behind him and wasn’t the reason for what some considered the benching of the best running back in football during the NFC championship game, when Gurley had only four carries for 10 yards, and was on the field for just 32 plays. C.J. Anderson has been the Rams’ No.1back in the post-season. The Rams need the Gurley of the last two regular seasons to show up Sunday. The more effective Gurley is on the ground, the more effective coach Sean McVay can be in distracting New England defenders with his jet sweeps and constant pre-snap motion.
Goff, Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Anderson are very good, but Gurley is this offence’s lone MVP-calibre talent.
THE PATS’ RUNNING GAME
Belichick’s offences with New England have ranged from the Oregon rushing attack to the Texas Tech passing offence, to two-tight-end sets, to three-receiver schemes. This year, they’ve gone old school, as a two-back, two-receiver team.
“We never thought we would (use a fullback) that much because so few teams are doing that,” said Dante Scarnecchia, the team’s offensive line coach. “But we gravitated to it more than any time in the past. We are what’s called a regular team: fullback, halfback, two receivers. ... That truly is our base.”
The Patriots made the decision to become a run-heavy team due to issues at wide receiver. And in two playoff games they have run 82 times for 331 yards. Scarnecchia said the Patriots have such a deep playbook from close to two decades in the same system that they were able to reach into the archives for plays that feature the “wham” blocking of fullback James Develin and tight end Rob Gronkowski.
New England was able to effectively control the clock in wins over the Chargers and Chiefs due to their running game.
“They don’t make many mistakes,” Phillips said. “Part of it is they don’t take any losses. In the running game they’re going forward all the time.”
THE RAMS’ SECONDARY
The media often jokes about Belichick not saying much in his news conferences, but you have to listen closely. The Thursday before the AFC Championship Game against the Chiefs, he hinted at one of the keys to the game: that Kansas City had a plus-91 point differential in the first quarters of games during the season.
Translation: The Patriots couldn’t let the Chiefs get off to afast start. Once the game started, New England dominated possessions and built a 14-0 first-half lead.
What’s he saying ahead of the Rams’ matchup? That L.A. has played mostly zone defence the second half of the season. He’s right, of course, as injuries to Aqib Talib and struggles by Marcus Peters have created coverage issues for the secondary, leading Phillips to dial up a lot of zone.
But Talib is back healthy, Peters is a very talented player, and the Patriots don’t have great options at wide receiver.
EXPERIENCE
The Super Bowl can be distracting, and early mistakes are common. The difference between these two teams is that the Patriots have been there before. They’ve overcome doubledigit deficits and won. The Rams don’t have that same championship seasoning. If they don’t make mistakes, they can win. The Patriots can mistakes and still win. That’s a big difference.