Despite media hype, driverless cars ways away
One of the most frequent questions I am asked is: “What do you think about autonomous vehicles?”
Actually, there are several parts to this question: What do I think about autonomous vehicles in general? How soon will they be on our roads? What company will the first to achieve critical mass acceptance among consumers?
First off, I think the idea of autonomous (or driverless) vehicles is a good one. Studies have concluded that autonomous vehicles would significantly reduce the number of auto collisions and traffic fatalities resulting from collisions. Who could argue with that?
In recent years, many automobile and technology companies (Tesla, Apple, Ford, Toyota, BMW, Waymo and Uber) have been investing heavily in autonomous research and development, as the market potential is huge. According to Allied Market Research, the autonomous vehicle market will increase from $54.23 billion this year to $556.67 billion in 2026. With so many companies competing in this space, it is anybody’s guess who will be the first to achieve that allimportant critical mass of acceptance.
But, when we talk about autonomous vehicles, it is important to keep things in perspective. Judging by the media hype, you would think that driverless cars are just around the corner, when that is simply not the case.
My guess is that we are still 10 or 20 years away from seeing driverless cars on the roads. Regulations, insurance, liabilities, vulnerability to hacking and moral guidelines are among the challenges that need to be resolved before this technology is given the green light.
It can take years for a new automotive technology to find widespread acceptance in the marketplace. Take, for example, the Toyota Prius hybrid electric model, which first arrived in North America in 2000. The Prius was a game changer with its improved fuel economy, lower emissions and advanced technology.
Still, it took two decades for the Prius to achieve more than one or two per cent of Toyota sales. In the past three years, Toyota hybrid sales (for all hybrid models) have grown to 10 per cent, and that figure is expected to grow in the next few years.
Today, more than 32 hybrid electric vehicles are available in Canada, and that number is continuing to grow.
Just as it has taken years for new safety features to be engineered into automobiles (lane keep assist, adaptive cruise control, forward collision monitoring), it will take years to test and monitor autonomous features and to get that technology right. Consumers are not going to abandon their operator-driven cars for driverless cars overnight.
What if a fully autonomous vehicle was available for sale today and you could legally operate it on a public road? Would you trust the technology ?
My sense is that most consumers would not trust it completely — at first. Many unforeseen obstacles come into play when driving, such as bumpy roads, pedestrians and/or animals that suddenly appear from the side of a road and treacherous weather conditions.
Another reason autonomous vehicles will take decades to catch on is the transition period. People who have been driving for 15 or more years are not likely to want to give up the wheel for an algorithm. It is too much of a leap of faith.
Plus, there is the sheer pleasure of driving. Many drivers, including myself, enjoy being in control of a vehicle and the act of driving itself.
I suspect that a large segment of the car driving public share this opinion and would want to maintain control of their vehicles, even if driverless cars are proven safer.
There is no denying that autonomous vehicle technology is a fascinating subject, and I will continue to monitor it with great interest. This column represents the views and values of the TADA. Write to president@tada.ca or go to tada.ca. Susan Gubasta is president of the Trillium Automobile Dealers Association and is president/CEO of Mississauga Toyota. For information about automotive trends and careers, visit carsandjobs.com.