Trump may even disrupt Canadian political summer

It’s not yet known what kind of a gift Canada will be giving U.S. Vice-President Mike Pence when he pays a visit to Ottawa at the end of next week. We know what Pence won’t be getting: a fully passed, brand-new law to implement the Canada-U.S.-Mexico free trade deal reached last fall.

Though Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland said it was “full steam ahead” on the trade-implementation bill after the U.S. lifted steel and aluminum tariffs last week, it’s not at all clear that the legislation can be passed before the pre-election campaign officially begins at the end of June.

Summer sittings in the Commons or the Senate are a distinct possibility, which would put a real dent in the summer barbecue circuit for all those MPs looking to get re-elected this fall.

Pence will be the highestranking member of Donald Trump’s administration to visit Ottawa since the president was elected. Trump, apart from his quick trip to the G-7 meeting in Charlevoix, Quebec — complete with his flaming exit — has not made any state visit to Canada yet.

Many of Trump’s predecessors made Canada their first international visit after being elected, but this unconventional president, perhaps unsurprisingly, did not bow to that convention.

Pence also arrives in Ottawa when the U.S. is between ambassadors to Canada — another unusual situation.

The current ambassador, Kelly Craft, was formally nominated this month to move on to the United Nations, replacing Nikki Haley. Perhaps Pence will arrive in Canada on Thursday with more hints about her replacement.

In the official announcement of his visit, the U.S. announced Pence was coming here to push for passage of what Trump likes to call the U.S.Canada-Mexico Agreement (USMCA). Here in Canada, it’s still being called NAFTA, by the way, or NAFTA II, at least unofficially by the Canadians who see it as an update to the old North American Free Trade Agreement.

“Vice-President Mike Pence will travel to Ottawa, Canada on behalf of President Donald Trump on Thursday, May 30th to call for swift adoption of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) and to meet with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on next steps,” last Friday’s news release declared.

Pence has also been calling this week for Congress to pass the deal by the end of summer.

No one is placing any bets on Pence getting his wish in Canada. Politicians around here have many other plans for this summer, and sweltering sittings in July and August aren’t part of them.

To avoid that prospect though, a new trade bill would have to join the queue of nearly two dozen other pieces of legislation floating around in Parliament awaiting passage before the election. It would need to be fast-tracked, too.

Though there have been some reports that the implementing legislation would be introduced within days, Freeland’s spokesperson, Adam Austen, said on Thursday that no decision has yet been finalized on whether the bill would be in the Commons by the time Pence visits.

Nor is there any guarantee it could get on a fast track. There are some signs it might happen. In a moment of rare agreement, for instance, Conservatives and Liberals seem to be on side with making the deal into law.

Brock Harrison, spokesperson for Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, wrote in an emailed statement on Thursday: “Justin Trudeau wasted a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get a better deal on NAFTA. However, Conservatives have worked hard to get tariffs removed and we recognize how important free trade with the United States is, so we will vote to ratify the deal in Parliament.”

The wild cards are the New Democrats and the independent Senate — both could put procedural obstacles into quick passage by the end of June.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh hasn’t been saying too much about the trade deal since the tariffs were lifted last week, but the NDP’s trade critic, Tracey Ramsay, has been questioning on Twitter why any deal needed to be rushed through.

Singh’s officials said the NDP would have “a lot” more to say next week; multiple questions Thursday went unanswered.

The Senate, meanwhile, has been fully embracing its independence, so no one — not even the U.S. vice-president — should count on it falling into line with Canada-U.S. wishes for passage of the new trade deal.

“Unpredictable” has become the guiding principle of Canada-U.S. relations since Trump was elected. The same goes for the pre-election future of the legislation to implement a deal that still doesn’t really have a real name around Ottawa. True to the climate of political disruption that seems to surround all things Trump, getting this deal passed in Canada could well disrupt the political summer in Canada.