Ford’s favourability rating taking a dive, poll finds

Numbers are worse than Wynne’s weeks before she was defeated in 2018

A new poll has Premier Doug Ford’s support down sharply, putting his majority Progressive Conservatives in third place and his own popularity in freefall.

“More and more Ontarians are turning away from Doug Ford as his support is collapsing,” Mainstreet Research president Quito Maggi said in a statement Thursday evening.

The premier’s net favourability rating has plunged to -53.5 per cent in the survey, almost 20 points below the -35.3 per cent of former premier Kathleen Wynne this time last year, just weeks before her Liberal party was decimated and left with just seven MPPs in the June 7 election.

“We have never seen an incumbent premier reach these depths in popular opinion with barely a year into his mandate,” Maggi said.

The survey contacted 996 Ontarians on Monday and Tuesday as the Ford government pressed forward with budget cuts, including $177 million for the City of Toronto that has landed the premier in a war of words with Mayor John Tory and councillors.

Maggi said the poll has a margin of error of a plus or minus 3.1 per cent and is accurate19 times out of 20.

The results continue a downward trend for the Conservatives as captured in recent polls by Corbett Communications, Pollara Strategic Insights and Environics Research.

If an election were held today, 39.9 per cent of decided and leaning voters said they would support the Liberals under interim leader John Fraser, up 13.9 percentage points from April, with Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats in second place at 24.2 per cent, a slight decline from last month, and Ford’s PCs with 22.4 per cent, down 10 percentage points from April). The Greens under Mike Schreiner were at 12 per cent.

Echoing a poll from Corbett Communications this month, Mainstreet found Tory remains a popular possibility for Liberal leader when the party holds a leadership race to Fraser, the MPP for Ottawa South.

Sixty-five per cent of decided Liberals voters said they prefer Tory, who was previously PC leader at Queen’s Park from 2004 to 2009.

Overall, 39.1 per cent of poll respondents said they would vote Liberal with Tory at the helm, about 10 points higher than other contenders and potential entrants in the looming race.

“Only John Tory is outperforming the current Liberal number, indicating that he is the only potential leadership candidate that can add some value to the Ontario Liberal brand at this moment,” Maggi said.

However, 54 per cent of Liberal voters said they were undecided on who the next party leader should be.