Cloudy future overshadows ‘sunny ways’
As Parliament enters final week, Liberals face uncertain prospects
OTTAWA— A Liberal government that got its start on a warm autumn day at Rideau Hall almost four years ago enters the final few days of the parliamentary session defending its record against a raucous opposition and growing resistance from several premiers.
It promises to be a busy final week on Parliament Hill as MPs count down the days before the Commons breaks for summer on Friday.
The government’s environmental legislation — which has sparked the ire of some industries and premiers unhappy about its potential impact on resource development — has ping-ponged back to the Senate.
The Liberals say they will decide on the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline by Tuesday.
On Wednesday, the Conservatives will release their long-awaited climate change strategy. On Thursday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau flies to Washington to meet with President Donald Trump to discuss ratification of the newly renegotiated NAFTA agreement.
They’ll also be discussing the detention of two Canadians in China.
There’s a chance MPs could be recalled for a rare summer sitting to ratify the new North American Free Trade Agreement, but the legislative agenda for the Liberals’ first term is largely over. When Parliament gets underway in earnest again, it will be with a new mix of MPs — and perhaps a new government following the October election.
In recent days, Trudeau has been defending his government’s record against opposition attacks, declaring that the Liberals have delivered for Canadians. He talked up spending on housing and transit, a middle-class income tax cut and help for seniors.
“We are putting more money in the pockets of the middle class with the Canada child benefit, which has lifted hundreds of thousands of people out of poverty,” Trudeau told the Commons. “These are all things that have helped families.”
Trudeau’s Liberals won 184 seats in the 2015 election, a stunning finish to a marathon campaign that saw the party vault to victory from third place. Touting a “sunny ways” style of governing, Trudeau and his cabinet ministers basked in the glow of an applauding crowd and a sunny day as they walked up the driveway at Rideau Hall for the swearing-in ceremony in November 2015.
Almost four years later, Liberals and Trudeau find themselves bruised by controversy and some broken promises, says Abacus Data CEO David Coletto.
“He’s like every other politician facing re-election that has alienated about half of the country. More important to the Liberals, a significant portion of those who voted for them last are disappointed and feeling alienated from some of the stuff that the party has done,” Coletto said in an interview.
“If they do get re-elected it will be … not because people wanted the Liberals but likely because they didn’t want one of the opponents,” he said.
“That’s a very different election campaign that the one we saw in 2015, which was much more hopeful and optimistic and about change and moving the country forward.”
Trudeau ends his term in office with some major election promises unfulfilled. For example, he abandoned a high-profile pledge to overhaul the electoral system, saying that his government would instead move forward on issues that “matter to Canadians.”
A pledge to eliminate the deficit by this year didn’t survive the Liberals’ first budget, which opened the taps for infrastructure spending. The deficit now stands at $19.8 billion, and while forecasts show it decreasing over the coming years, there is no firm timeline on a return to surplus.
“It’s now official. Trudeau broke his promise that he would balance the budget in 2019. His growing debt will mean massive tax increases if he is re-elected,” Conservative MP Pierre Poilievre said in an interview. “Trudeau is costing Canadians a fortune but it’s going to get much worse.”
A Liberal vow to boost openness and transparency also foundered as the government broke a pledge to make the Prime Minister’s Office and ministers’ offices subject to access to information requests. Government-wide, the access to information system is facing a backlog of complaints and an information commissioner’s office that lacks the resources to investigate.
On the world stage, the government has finalized trade deals with the European Union and Pacific nations and negotiated a new pact with the United States and Mexico, despite Trump’s penchant for brinksmanship and social media diplomacy.
But serious disputes with China and Saudi Arabia have put Trudeau and his government on the defensive on the foreign affairs file, and the Liberals’ promise for more robust engagement with United Nations peace support operations has fallen short of the expectations.
There were other stumbles along the way. The ethics commissioner ruled that a Trudeau family vacation on the Aga Khan’s island in December 2016 broke multiple conflict-of-interest laws. A 2018 trip to India produced embarrassing headlines over wardrobe choices and a security breach.
But the most serious blow to Trudeau’s government came earlier this year, when former attorney general and justice minister Jody Wilson-Raybould accused the prime minister and senior officials of pressuring her to intervene in the criminal proceedings against SNC-Lavalin.
Wilson-Raybould and Treasury Board president Jane Philpott both quit cabinet — and both MPs were later kicked out of the Liberal caucus — while Trudeau’s principal secretary, Gerald Butts, resigned his post.
The inevitable political price of a term in office has taken a toll on the Liberals, but Coletto says they are somewhat to blame for setting high expectations in that they would govern differently.
“They’ve made some decisions that have gone against the brand, and that lack of consistency I think has hurt the prime minister with certain groups of voters,” Coletto said.
Another factor is that some Liberal priorities seem out of step with the concerns of everyday Canadians, Coletto said.
“They aren’t connecting anymore with a segment of electorate that voted for them last time because they are not really talking about their world,” he said, citing Canadians’ anxiety around the cost of living.
That opens the door for opposition politicians who now have “to make the case that they are better,” Coletto said.
Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer still continues to play to a “very small audience,” Coletto said, adding that the Conservatives are “still having a hard time expanding the tent and converting people to see them as a credible alternative.”
But he also said the Conservative focus on affordability aligns with Canadians’ concerns and could have a big payoff. “If they can make that election about who is going to make your life more affordable, they can win. It’s there for them.”
Still, Liberal MPs are optimistic as they prepare to return to their ridings for the pre-campaign summer season.
“We have a very defendable record,” said John MacKay (Scarborough- Guildwood). “That’s what you do when you’re in government. You have to defend what you just did and put in the window a few things you’d like to do.”