Who exactly is Andrew Scheer?
Over six million Canadians tuned into the Raptors game on June 10. That game seems like a nightmare now, as it ended in one point heartbreak for the Raptors. Nevertheless, the pan Canadian audience was bonded by hope and tense with expectation. National unity does not get better than this.
No one, except for the most politically discerning, expected to see political attack ads.
It was somewhat jarring to see a bobble head figure of Andrew Scheer suddenly emerge on the screen with a voice-over that intoned, “Andrew Scheer will never stand up to Doug Ford” especially regarding Ford’s cuts to heath care, education and support for families challenged by autism. Similar attack ads continued throughout the week, aimed at Justin Trudeau.
Unlike Americans, Canadians have not traditionally been favourable to attacks ads. They can backfire if used insensitively.
In 1993, the Progressive Conservative ad mocking Jean Chrétien’s face ignited strong support for the Liberal party. Used wisely, however, ads can intuitively highlight any perceived character flaw.
The Engage Canada ads accomplished two points. They were timed for a maximum number of viewers and they contributed to speculation about Scheer. After two years as Opposition leader and four years as the youngest speaker of the House of Commons, his political personality remains quiet. Unfortunately for him, at least two Conservative premiers, Doug Ford and Jason Kenney, are noisy.
The Ontario premier has baggage already. He has unsurprisingly proven to be a political disaster. Voter’s remorse has set in. His polls are plummeting. Anonymous Conservatives are leaking their concerns to reporters and his caucus seems to be in a meltdown.
Scheer must find a way to distance himself from Ford while simultaneously retaining Ford Nation support. In a somewhat defensive move, Scheer gave an interview to this paper emphasizing that he is his “own person, with his own style and his own approach.” It was an odd statement because leaders rarely feel compelled to insist they are their own person. Ford Nation must have been slightly perplexed.
Meanwhile, Kenney is a strategic lightning rod. Formerly a federal Conservative minister under Stephen Harper, the premier of Alberta is also causing trouble.
Unlike Ford, Kenney and Scheer seemed joined at the hip on policies. However, speculation is mounting that Kenney is the federal “leader in waiting,” which has to be slightly awkward for the two of them.
Scheer will also have to carefully monitor the Alberta premier’s actions. Kenney, Ford and four other premiers recently joined forces in an “urgent” letter to challenge Trudeau on two recent pieces of environmental legislation. They warned of a “unity crisis” if they did not get their way.
If there is any threat that makes Liberal hearts beat faster, it is a threat to “national unity.” The prime minister realized quickly the political gift. He immediately countered with an allegation that the premiers were being irresponsible to suggest a national unity crisis.
Trudeau made it clear that he will speak for Canada and for all Canadians, raising the question of what Scheer would do in a national unity crisis. Would he be a strong national leader or would he always be in the grip of one premier or another?
And Scheer has one more identity crisis. When he ran for the Conservative leadership, narrowly beating Maxime Bernier, who subsequently left to form his own party, Scheer did not argue when he was favourably compared to former prime minister Stephen Harper.
Is Harper lurking behind Scheer? Is Scheer also being led by Kenney? And what will Scheer do with Ford?
Scheer has to fight for his political life, not only with Trudeau, but with his own partisans. Whether Scheer has the courage and the guts to stand up to the Conservative warlords around him is a genuine question for the fall election.
The ad hit the mark. Who are you, Mr. Scheer?