Stroman trade verdict far from clear
The reviews have been flooding in ever since the Blue Jays traded right-hander Marcus Stroman to the Mets for a pair of pitching prospects and the results haven’t been kind to either side.
This appears to be one of the rare trades where both parties are being called the loser of the deal. The Blue Jays for not acquiring what many around the game consider to be an elite prospect. The Mets for trading away what little prospect capital they had in a year the club isn’t likely to sniff the post-season.
The term “light” has been thrown around a lot in the media over the past 24 hours to describe Toronto’s return of left-hander Anthony Kay and right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson for its top arm. The description was used by the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal while the Ringer preferred to call it “genuinely puzzling” that the Jays didn’t get more in return. The media arguably was even harsher on the Mets.
It’s not a great look that neither pitcher acquired by the Jays can be found on Baseball America’s or MLB Pipeline’s list of the top 100 prospects. Nor is it particularly inspiring that the better of the two prospects — Woods Richardson — is the furthest away from joining the bigleague team. On the surface, the deal leaves a lot to be desired.
But putting too much stock into these early reports is never wise. Almost every off-season there is one team that is crowned the winner of the winter and almost as frequently that organization turns into one of the league’s biggest disappointments. It happened to the Jays in 2013, a few years ago it was the Diamondbacks and the latest culprit might have been the Padres.
The Jays obviously view the Stroman deal a lot differently than their critics. They look at the 24-year-old Kay and see someone they believe will slot into the back end of their rotation as early as next season. Toronto is putting more stock into his numbers at Double-A, where he went 7-3 with a 1.49 ERA in 12 starts this season, compared to the 6.61 ERA he posted after a promotion to Triple-A Syracuse.
Then there’s the real key to this deal: Woods Richardson. This is where the Jays and their critics have the most divergent views on value. Jays general manager Ross Atkins called the 18-year-old “one of the most exciting pitching prospects in baseball.” They scouted him heavily before last year’s draft, but ultimately missed out when he was taken 48th overall by New York.
On the other side of the debate, critics express doubt that Woods Richardson will last long-term as a starter. They look at his 93-m.p.h. fastball, which reportedly touches 97, and suggest that the native of Texas is eventually destined for the bullpen. The Jays, on the other hand, are infatuated with him and after missing out last year they didn’t want history to repeat itself.
“After the deal happened, I’ve talked to a lot of executives around the game,” Atkins said when pressed on the low rankings of the prospects he acquired. “They seem to line up, all of us thinking — we certainly felt it here in Toronto — that Woods Richardson is one of the most exciting pitching prospects in baseball. He is right up there.
“I think the great thing about young players is, one of the most exciting things about young players — and Woods Richardson was one of the youngest players in this draft — is how much they can improve in a short period of time.”
For their sake, the Jays better hope the progress happens faster than most people think because this front office is only going to be given so long to turn things around. Yes, Toronto is rebuilding and patience is required, but a lot of the top hitting prospects are already here. A solid group of pitchers needs to surround them — and soon — for the upside to not be entirely wasted.
Toronto swapped its best pitcher for a couple of lottery tickets and the front office needs to be able to cash at least one of them in. The early reviews aren’t great, but the media has been wrong plenty of times before and it won’t take as long as some people think before the winds start blowing in one way or the other on this deal.