First Stroman, now …
Jays trade Sanchez, as big selloff for prospects gets panned.
The Blue Jays’ front office can’t seem to catch a break these days. First, they were criticized for waiting too long to make trades. Now they’re being accused of moving too fast.
The industry has not been kind this week to Toronto executives. Terms such as embarrassing, disappointing and underwhelming have been tossed around to describe the Jays’ return for right-hander Marcus Stroman. Even more colourful language was used to critique Wednesday’s trade of Aaron Sanchez.
A report from Andy Martino of SNY resulted in the harshest assessment of all when he quoted a rival executive who called the return for Stroman “dog&*$!.” The reviews were harsh right out of the gate and only got worse when Cleveland pulled off a three-team deal involving right-hander Trevor Bauer.
On the surface, it’s easy to see why there was so much criticism. For 1 1⁄2 years of Bauer, Cleveland secured 24-year-old slugger in Franmil Reyes, who has 27 homers and an .849 OPS in 99 big-league games this season. They added a lefty in Logan Allen, who was ranked San Diego’s seventh-best prospect and 98th overall by MLB Pipeline, and that wasn’t all.
Cleveland also secured two months of outfielder Yasiel Puig as the club looked to beef up its lineup for a run at the American League Central. Add in 24year-old lefty Scott Moss, who was ranked No. 12 in the Indians’ system, and 19-year-old Victor Nova, an infielder in rookie ball, and it looks like a compelling package.
Compare that to what the Jays got for Stroman and it’s not a good look. Neither of the two pitching prospects Toronto received for its top pitcher was ranked in the top 100 by Baseball America or MLB Pipeline. Simeon Woods Richardson is three or four years away and comes with a ton of risk, while most prospect experts peg Anthony Kay as a fifth starter. The Jays already have plenty of those.
The outsider’s perspective of a questionable return helped fuel a narrative that the Jays moved too quickly in dealing Stroman. The argument is that if the organization waited longer, a better deal would have surfaced. Once Bauer got traded, the expecta
tion was that contenders would start to feel the pressure and up their offers for whatever bigname starters were left on the board.
Except, that didn’t happen. Outside of the Astros, who added Zack Greinke, hardly any contending teams made a big splash. The Yankees and Red Sox didn’t do anything at all while the likes of Madison Bumgarner, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, Mike Minor and Matt Boyd stayed with their respective teams.
Debate the return for Stroman at will, that’s fair game, but the timing wasn’t as bad as most people seem to think. Anyone who believed Yankees GM Brian Cashman was going to be pressured into trading top prospect Deivi Garcia appears to have been wrong and the same could be said about most contenders.
“We feel even better about it after having seen and understood what teams were willing to do,” Jays general manager Ross Atkins said. “Nothing changed afterwards. I think if you’re pointing to the Trevor Bauer deal, the way that that deal was structured wouldn’t have lined up as well for us, and Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman are different pitchers, too.”
Atkins has a point there. Stroman and Bauer don’t equate to a fair comparison because they are much different pitchers. Baseball quite often can be considered a copycat sport and right now teams value guys who generate swings and misses much more than those who pitch to contact, even the ones who typically keep the ball on the ground.
Over the past three years, Bauer has generated more swinging strikes (11.4 per cent vs. 9.7) and has more separation between his strikeout and walk rates (19.8 per cent vs. 11.5). This season, he has more strikeouts per nine innings (10.63 vs. 7.15). If you polled the league and asked which pitcher you would rather have for an elimination game, despite Stroman’s reputation in Toronto, the answer is probably Bauer.
The Jays’ biggest issue, after deciding it was trading Stroman no matter what — which is a debate for another day — was the market itself. Similar to free agency, there has been a shift in terms of how the league values players, in this case prospects. Cheap controllable talent appears to be winning out and even some of the big-market teams have become hesitant to part with the future chips.
“It seemed to be as the market unravelled that some of the bigger names that were being rumoured, maybe not all of them, would be moved,” Atkins said. “I think the biggest thing is just how much teams value keeping controllable talent. It seems to be every year, more and more and more, the controllable talent and young prospects are more valuable.”
From this corner, the timing of the Stroman deal is entirely defensible but the same cannot be said for Wednesday’s trade which saw Sanchez, Joe Biagini and prospect Cal Stevenson join the Astros. Toronto opted to sell low on Sanchez, and even added in three-plus years of control for Biagini, plus the club’s No. 25 prospect in Stevenson to get the deal done. The return? It’s one the Jays love and most other experts seem to hate.
Toronto acquired Derek Fisher, who turns 26 next month and has slashed .201/ .282/.367 in 112 career games at the big-league level. He possesses plenty of power, but he strikes out far too often and doesn’t get on base nearly enough. Atkins boasted about Fisher’s ability to play all three outfield spots, but some scouting reports question the defence, especially in centre. Considering the Jays already have two players like that in Teoscar Hernandez and Randal Grichuk, the upside seems limited.
But here’s the bottom line: After all the wheeling and dealing of the last week, the Jays don’t have a single top-100 prospect to show for it. The big sell-off of 2019 never really happened, just like it didn’t really occur in 2017 or 2018. Not all those mishaps are on the organization, but for the Jays’ sake they better hope their internal reports are more accurate than the public consensus on Fisher, because right now it’s not pretty.