Trudeau-Scheer rematch is within realm of possibility
Change at top not likely in close fight
Under Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer, the Liberals and the Conservatives have consistently failed to thrive on the campaign trail.
With little more than a weekend to go, neither of the leaders currently going toe to toe for the job of prime minister has managed to earn the support of more than a third of the electorate.
Monday’s outcome could be determined by which of the two turns out to be most adept at stoking fears about what the other would do in government.
Given that, it is increasingly easy to find Liberals and/or Conservatives who are convinced their party would have fared better under a different leader.
And yet, if a deadlocked campaign results in a hung Parliament on Monday, change at the top is unlikely to be in the offing for any of the main parties.
Voters could end up heading back to the polls within less than two years, only to be again presented with the same leadership choices.
The Bloc Québécois and the NDP have both beaten the (low) expectations that attended the launches of their campaigns. And that means YvesFrançois Blanchet and Jagmeet Singh will almost certainly be around for the duration of the next Parliament.
That will be true of the NDP leader even if, as polls suggest is possible, he brings a caucus diminished by a third to a half back to the House of Commons.
It was only a few weeks ago that the New Democrats had cause to fear losing official party status and finishing behind the Green Party.
At the campaign’s end, both of those outcomes seem improbable.
Blanchet, for his part, is poised to be the first Bloc Québécois leader to make it to Parliament in eight years. The BQ campaign did not give sovereignty pride of place but its success will give the independence movement the morale boost it was desperately hoping for.
When it comes to the main contenders though, a very close result may be the only outcome that would see both Trudeau and Scheer hang on to their jobs long enough to refight this fall’s election battle.
The prospect of a majority government of any stripe has largely faded over the past four weeks. By now, such an outcome would probably be the big surprise of election night.
Still, pollsters and poll aggregators described the provincial election in Quebec last year as too close to call right up to the day of the vote. As it turned out, the polls had barely closed when it became clear that the Coalition Avenir Québec would form a majority government.
Few believe that either Scheer or Trudeau would survive as leader after a defeat of that magnitude.
Paul Martin and Stephen Harper, the last two prime ministers whose party failed to win re-election to government, both resigned on election night. Martin did so in the face of a narrow minority Conservative victory.
But if Trudeau finishes second, and is only a few seats behind Scheer, he would have cause to set aside the script his predecessors followed at least long enough to see if he has a fighting chance to make a minority government work.
Notwithstanding Scheer’s contention that the party that wins the most seats should have the “right” to govern, the rule actually is that the outgoing prime minister gets the first shot — if he or she wants it — at trying to put together a viable government.
In the past, a razor-thin plurality of seats has not always been a guarantee of success.
In the 1985 Ontario election, the Tories beat the Liberals by four seats, but then-premier Frank Miller could not find enough support on the opposition benches to sustain a minority government. The second-place Liberals went on to run the province with the support of the NDP for two years.
As recently as two years ago, the B.C. Liberals — with 43 seats to the NDP’s 41 — were relegated to the opposition benches for the same reason.
But whether he narrowly hangs on to first place or finishes a close second in a minority House of Commons, Trudeau would probably not stick around as leader if he failed to secure the opposition support he would need to keep the job of prime minister.
Scheer’s choices are somewhat different.
When he was elected leader, more than a few Conservatives believed their party would be in opposition beyond 2019.
They mostly saw Scheer as a placeholder, possibly to be disposed of after a 2019 defeat against Trudeau.
Should the Conservatives hold the Liberals to a minority on Monday, all bets will be off.
Despite Scheer’s momentum-free campaign, despite his failure to find enough traction in Quebec to prevent the Bloc Québécois from overtaking the Conservatives, it would be difficult — even if he ends up returning his party to opposition — to push him out the door of a hung Parliament.
In the past, a razor-thin plurality of seats has not always been a guarantee of success