Nationals are left to play waiting game after sweep
Washington’s four-game sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Championship Series gave the Nationals six full days off before the franchise begins play in its first World Series. The American League champions, meanwhile will have no more than three days off, and possibly less. Some fans and analysts have asked whether Washington’s sprint through the NLCS actually offers too much of a layoff, and recent history backs up their trepidation.
Since MLB went through a realignment in 1994 and the playoffs expanded to three division winners plus a wild card in each league, the World Series team that entered with more rest has a 12-12 record in the championship series.
In 2012, baseball added a second wildcard team to each league. Since then, the World Series team with more rest has posted a 1-6 record, the lone victory coming last season when the Boston Red Sox, after five days off, defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers, who had a threeday break.
Before that, the team with fewer days of rest had won nine straight titles. Teams with six or more days of rest are 6-7 since 1994, and 0-4 in the double wild-card era.
Should the Nats be concerned? To be fair, Washington’s pitching rotation is more talented than those from the previous four teams that enjoyed at least six days of pre-World Series rest. Washington’s starters struck out a higher percentage of batters than its well-rested predecessors (even after taking into account era, league and park effects); allowed a lower rate of hard-hit balls (again, adjusted for era); and were worth more wins above replacement collectively during the regular season.
In addition, Washington’s starters allowed 71fewer runs than expected, given the men on base and outs remaining in the inning at the time of the at-bat (known as RE24) — a significantly greater savings than any of the previous four well-rested pitching staffs.
The first advantage of the time off? Setting the pitching rotation precisely how you want it. The American League representative could be scrambling to set its rotation for the World Series. But Washington GM Mike Rizzo, during his weekly radio segment, said he expects Max Scherzer to start in Tuesday’s Game 1 of the World Series and Stephen Strasburg to be on the mound in Game 2.
Scherzer allowed nine earned runs in 242⁄ 3innings (for a 3.28 ERA) when rested six or more days in 2019, striking out 30 of 95 batters faced (32 per cent).
Perhaps Washington fans should be worried more about the Nationals’ hitting coming off this six-day breather than the impressive pitching staff.
“As a hitter, I play every day. I rely on rhythm and timing. I rely on routine,” Casey explained. “A starting pitcher goes once every five days. He doesn’t mind a layoff, because he already has those four days off before he starts. For an everyday player, six or seven days off is a long time.”
The four teams getting extra rest (six or more days) since 2012 batted a combined .223 with a .642 OPS in the first game of the World Series. And three of the four, the outlier being the 2016 Cleveland Indians, lost the championship opener.