Why Brexit may cost the United Kingdom its unity
Upcoming election will rouse forces trying to rip up the U.K. And this may happen regardless of which party wins on Dec. 12
LONDON— Who would have thought that the Queen might ultimately outlive her kingdom?
When she met this week with Boris Johnson to mark the official launch of the Dec. 12 election campaign, the Queen may have wondered if Johnson, as her 14th prime minister spanning a 67-year reign, will become the last one left standing over a truly
United Kingdom.
With hundreds of years of history in the balance, it is becoming increasingly clear that the price of Brexit may be the eventual breakup of the union.
The U.K. is made up of four nations — England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland — with a considerable history together. England annexed Wales in 1536, England and Scotland merged in 1707 and Ireland joined what is now the United Kingdom in 1801.
Two weeks before Christmas, Britain faces its third general election in four years in what is being described as perhaps the most important vote in a generation.
Not only will it become another agonizing chapter in Britain’s slow-motion divorce from Europe, it will embolden
the forces that are trying to rip the United Kingdom apart. And this may happen regardless of which of the two main parties come out ahead — the governing Conservatives or the opposition Labour Party.
Johnson is seeking a majority Conservative government to “get Brexit done” and finally pull the U.K. out of the European Union. Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party are promising to work out “a better deal,” but, more importantly, to put it to a second referendum.
In the fateful 2016 vote over whether Britain should leave the European Union, the national vote was 52 per cent to 48 per cent for the “Leave” side — but Scotland voted overwhelmingly (62 per cent) to “Remain” with the EU, as did Northern Ireland.
Nicola Sturgeon, the leader of the Scottish National Party, wants another independence referendum by next year. In the first referendum in 2014, the proposition “Should Scotland be an independent country?” was rejected 55 per cent to 45 per cent, but recent opinion polls — spurred on by the unpopularity of Boris Johnson in Scotland — suggest that the independence option may now be leading.
Her party is expected to trounce both the Conservatives and Labour in the upcoming election, and that is certain to provide public pressure on Johnson if his party wins. Sturgeon would need the government’s approval to stage a second referendum.
If, on the other hand, Corbyn and Labour prevail, it is more than likely that they will need the support of the Scottish National Party in the House of Commons, and there is already talk of a “deal” with Labour that would result in a second Scottish referendum in the next year or two.
In Northern Ireland, with fears growing about how life would be after Brexit, there is also talk of radical change. Even the possibility of eventual unification with the Republic of Ireland is being openly discussed.
As for Wales, which, unlike Scotland and Northern Ireland, favoured leaving the EU, nationalist sentiment is increasing, and support for its fledgling independent movement is growing.
But it is in England where history is being rewritten.
As Britain’s Brexit drama unfolds, it is becoming evident that the ideologues driving this cause are overwhelmingly English nationalists — who are largely indifferent to the fate of the United Kingdom as a whole.
Even though Johnson in his first speech as prime minister pledged loyalty to the “awesome foursome” that make up the U.K., his actions suggest otherwise. He has been hostile to Scottish nationalists and, to many Conservative supporters in Northern Ireland, he has betrayed their interests in the Brexit agreement with the EU.
But not surprisingly, Johnson seems in tune with his party. In a national survey last June, a majority of Conservative Party members indicated they are willing to see the U.K. broken up in order to secure Brexit.
Roughly 60 per cent said they would prefer to see Scotland and Northern Ireland break apart from the U.K. if that was necessary to achieve Brexit.
In another survey in September, a majority of people in England (52 per cent) and in Scotland (61 per cent) indicated that they thought Brexit is likely to lead to the breakup of the United Kingdom. In Wales, the figure was 47 per cent.
Since the 2016 Brexit referendum, the country has been divided down the middle and the debate has had its toll. Old grievances have surfaced and historic bonds that have held the “union” together over the decades have frayed.
One day, undoubtedly, there will be some sort of resolution to the Brexit impasse.
But whether there will be a “United Kingdom” still standing afterwards is very much in question.