A task list for returning Ontario’s Liberals to power
Early last spring, when Nathalie Des Rosiers was thinking about running for the Ontario Liberal leadership, she met with young Liberals at the University of Ottawa where she had been the popular dean of law.
Des Rosiers, a former cabinet minister who was one of only seven Liberals to win a seat in the 2018 election, wanted to ask the students for their support if she entered the race.
But Des Rosiers got a rude shock — the students were already committed to Steven Del Duca, a candidate who had actively courted and won their backing months earlier.
It made her decision to stay out of the race a no-brainer: If she couldn’t even win the support of students at her old school, how was she ever going to win the race?
By May, Des Rosiers had opted to get out of politics altogether, announcing she would resign her seat effective Aug. 1 and become the new principal of Massey College in Toronto.
Her decision was a severe blow to the Liberals. But it also was a sign of how surprisingly hard-fought the leadership contest has turned out to be, given how shattered the party was after the rout it suffered in 2018.
Indeed, six candidates entered the contest by Monday’s deadline. Some had feared as few as two people would run. The new leader will be chosen at a March 7 convention.
Del Duca, a defeated cabinet minister, has spent the past year crossing Ontario to meet with student associations, riding presidents, defeated candidates and loyal members. It’s been his only job. The payoff is that he’s now considered the front-runner, having raised the most money and collected the most endorsements.
Trailing Del Duca are Liberal MPPs Michael Coteau and Mitzie Hunter. Both have been busy with raising money and meeting possible supporters. Also in the race are long-shot candidates Kate Graham of London, Alvin Tedjo of Oakville and Ottawa lawyer Brenda Hollingsworth.
Regardless of who wins, the next leader faces a daunting task of returning the party to respectability.
Behind the scenes, though, senior Liberals know what must be done — post-Kathleen Wynne. In interviews with veteran organizers, a picture emerges of the critical steps needed to get the party at least into second place in 2022 — and with lots of luck, a return to power.
First, candidate recruitment: The new leader will need to inspire people to run in all 124 ridings. Even in good times, it’s impossible to find candidates to run in 10 to 15 “no-hope” ridings. Such spots are often filled by young party aides from Queen’s Park. In 2022, though, there could be up to 40 ridings in that category, with another 75 in which
“serviceable” candidates can be found. The really hard part for the next leader will be to find six to eight “star candidates” who are impressive in their own right.
Second, rebuild riding associations: Nearly half the local associations are mere shells, with so few members that they don’t even try to stage events. At the top of the agenda will be active outreach to each riding executive member.
Third, rebuild the headquarters team: The head office team is seen as needing a total shakeup. That means hiring new staff, organizing field workers and adopting new social media campaign tactics that worked so well for Justin Trudeau in the recent federal election.
Fourth, rebuild membership: Fewer than 10,000 people are paid-up members and the number keeps falling. The new leader must reach out both to current members and to lapsed members, mainly through increased newsletters, personal emails and riding events (See point 2).
Fifth, rebuild finances: Fundraising is always a problem for Liberals, who have raised barely $700,000 this year compared to some $4 million for the Conservatives. The party won’t stand a chance against the Tories if they are outspent four to one in the election campaign.
Once chosen, the new leader will have to move quickly on all these fronts. That’s because there will be only 27 months between the leadership convention and the June 2, 2022, election.
In politics, there’s no time to waste.
Six candidates entered the Liberal leadership contest by Monday’s deadline. Some had feared as few as two people would run