Scheer not the only Conservative who’s lost ground

MONTREAL— It is not just Andrew Scheer or the federal Conservatives who took a hit when the party snatched defeat from the jaws of a plausible victory in October.

Their provincial allies in Alberta, New Brunswick and Ontario all need to rebuild bridges at home and across the country.

In light of the avalanche of criticism that has been piling up on Scheer, one might forget that he was not the sole architect of his campaign’s strategy.

A gaggle of Conservative premiers cheered their federal leader every inch of the way as he declared war on the Liberal climate change policy and promised to lead a decisively pro-pipeline federal government.

And while Scheer’s performance on the campaign trail was undeniably underwhelming, there is plenty of evidence that the message — as approved and amplified at every opportunity by his provincial allies — was rejected along with the federal messenger.

In Ontario and New Brunswick, two thirds voted for parties committed to more aggressive climate change policies, including carbon pricing.

In Alberta, there are signs that Jason Kenney has milked just about every drop of political capital he could get out of bashing Justin Trudeau.

The province’s voters are increasingly turning their eye to other aspects of his government’s policies.

As the current provincial class is discovering, picking fight with Ottawa tends to bring in diminishing returns — especially when one’s federal counterpart has just secured re-election.

Based on a Léger poll done for the Canadian Press in the leadup to Monday’s gathering of the premiers in Toronto, a majority of their own electorate disapprove of the performances of three of the prime minister’s most vocal provincial critics.

These days, Ontario’s Doug Ford, Alberta’s Jason Kenney and New Brunswick’s Blaine Higgs all have in common an approval rating that falls short of 50 per cent.

By comparison, majorities in Quebec and British Columbia approve of François Legault and John Horgan’s performances. It is not a coincidence that both happen to support carbon pricing and oppose new pipeline developments.

For the sake of comparison, Legault currently enjoys the highest provincial approval rating, at 65 per cent, while Ford sits at the other end of the scale. The gap between the domestic popularity of the Quebec and Ontario premiers has rarely been so wide.

By all indications, the federal election turned the provincial table on the pro-pipeline, anti-carbon pricing premiers.

The battle lost at the federal level will not be refought successfully on the interprovincial battlefield, or at least not on the same terms.

At the same time, though, voters administered Trudeau a lesson in humility, reducing his party to a minority government with a smaller share of the popular vote than the runner-up.

In the aftermath of the federal vote, Higgs abandoned plans to lead a provincial challenge to Trudeau’s carbon tax and set out to implement a carbon-pricing scheme of his own.

Ford has been recasting himself in the more traditional Ontario role of power broker.

That amounts to a belated admission that a permanent state of war between Ottawa and Queen’s Park will not offer the premier the best path to reelection in 2022.

At this juncture, Ford is significantly less popular than Trudeau in Ontario. The difference is not exclusively grounded in personalities. Policy — including on climate change — is part of the mix.

From Kenney’s perspective, the appointment of Chrystia Freeland as Trudeau’s unity minister offered an opportunity to tone down his rhetoric.

Her first meetings with the Prairie premiers resulted in a notable change of tone in the dialogue between Ottawa and the political elites of the region.

That was followed on the occasion of Monday’s Council of the Federation gathering by a deliberate collective shift to a more consensual agenda.

By common agreement, the premiers focused on potential common ground rather than on the issues that will continue to divide them.

As is par for the course in the federation, that ground tends to be found on the field of grievances against Ottawa.

Still, the premiers did manage to set aside their competing interests long enough to give pride of place in their communiqué to the demand from Saskatchewan and Alberta for a better fiscal deal to see those provinces through challenging economic times. That allowed Kenney and Premier Scott Moe to claim the win they needed. The communiqué also committed the provinces to “continuing to develop resources in a responsible manner and ensure access to markets for Canada’s product,” wording that involved a fair amount of papering over of differences.

It is always easier for one level of government to call on another to spend. Notwithstanding Monday’s rare unanimous outcome, harmony will not break out tomorrow on the federal-provincial front. It never really does.

But it is possible that the humbling results of the Oct. 21 election will lead to a more constructive conversation than the federal-provincial screaming match that preceded the vote.