Nice start, but Keefe’s job is just beginning
Sheldon Keefe’s first task as Mike Babcock’s replacement has been completed.
That job was to lift the Maple Leafs out of the doldrums they were in when Babcock was dismissed. Keefe has done that with a 15-5-2 record over the past seven weeks, and has the team scoring goals and creating offence at the level at which many believed it was capable.
Whether Babcock would have turned the team around if he was allowed to continue, well, that no longer really matters. All that matters is Keefe has done what he was hired to do.
Or at least, one-third of what he was hired to do. The next two parts will be much more difficult.
First, it has to be a priority to get the Leafs home-ice advantage for at least one round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Right now, that’s looking less likely with each passing day.
The Atlantic Division has returned to the order most anticipated before the season. Buffalo has been unable to maintain its strong early season form. Montreal is in a complete free fall. The Habs don’t have a franchise-type young player, an impact scorer, and don’t want to do a complete rebuild to get one.
At the top end of the division, Boston is as strong as ever. Tampa Bay has managed to pass the Leafs in recent days despite Toronto’s strong play under Keefe. The Lightning are looking powerful again, having won nine of 10 games, and have set their sights on catching the Bruins now that they’ve skipped past the Leafs.
That leaves the Leafs again set to start the post-season on the road, a formula that hasn’t worked the past three springs. Even with Auston Matthews scoring at a pace that has him contending for both the Hart and Rocket Richard trophies, and even with the AHL Marlies having done an admirable job of providing very useful players to the parent club, the Leafs are at the moment essentially headed to repeat their finish of the past two seasons.
The second task remaining for Keefe is related to the first. He’s got to get the team past the first round of the playoffs. If the Leafs finish third (or worse) in the Atlantic and can’t win a playoff series, there’s going to be some pointed questions about what exactly was the point of the mid-season coaching change.
It’s not enough that they’re playing different under Keefe. They’ve got to make progress in the post-season. Despite the relative youth of their core, this season was always going to be about at least winning a round, and that doesn’t change because GM Kyle Dubas changed the coach.
Many Leafs observers seem happier now. Some are downright giddy, loving the way the Leafs attack, often with both defencemen leading the charge. But a combined 10 goals allowed in home ice losses to Edmonton and Winnipeg this week were a sobering
reminder that this remains a below-average defensive team, and below-average defensive teams usually — but not always — find themselves bounced early from the post-season.
The Leafs allowed just four goals against in three victories last week, which was encouraging. This week was a return to their worst tendencies, particularly on Wednesday when horrific mistakes by team leaders Freddie Andersen and captain John Tavares helped the Jets register a shootout triumph.
The Leafs remain the NHL’s 20th best defensive team, with goaltending that is maddeningly up and down. Until they become more consistent, catching Boston and/or Tampa seems unlikely, particularly given the fact both the Bruins and Bolts are superior defensively to Toronto and are among the league’s better offensive teams.
The other challenge facing Keefe’s team, meanwhile, will be keeping the Florida Panthers at bay. This is going to be interesting to watch, starting with a head-to-head collision
Sunday in Sunrise, because these teams are mirror images of each other.
Like the Leafs, the Panthers don’t defend well but score lots of goals. Like the Leafs, the goaltending stats aren’t great, although the .896 save percentage of $70-million goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has been a bigger headache for Joel Quenneville’s team. The Leafs have the NHL’s 16th best save percentage at even strength, while
Florida is 29th in that department.
The Panthers sit three points behind the Leafs with a game in hand. Florida started the season 1-4, then hit another slippery patch in early December with three losses in four home games over a span of seven days.
After facing the Leafs on Sunday, the Panthers are looking at a softish section of their schedule with their next five games after Sunday against non-playoff teams. They face the Leafs again on Feb. 3, this time in Toronto. So mark that game on your calendar, and we’ll see if Florida is able to gain any ground on the Leafs over that period.
In a league defined by streaks, the Panthers have yet to get really hot. This could be their chance, particularly if Bobrovsky can find his game. There are no signs, however, of that happening. In his past five starts, his save percentage is an awful .879.
Still, Florida has six forwards with 13 goals or more, including surprising ex-Bruin forward Noel Acciardi, who has 17. The high-scoring Leafs, meanwhile, have three such scorers.
Florida would be thrilled just to make the post-season after missing in six of the past seven seasons. Toronto’s objectives, meanwhile, have to be a good deal more ambitious than that.
As we head into the dog days of the season, the Leafs are looking to move up. But they better keep an eye on their rear view mirror, as well.