Contrasting tales of Tiger strength
Clemson’s defence may be the first all year that can rattle LSU’s Burrow
Clemson is making its fourth appearance in the national championship game in five years. The Tigers, winners of two of the last three titles, haven’t lost since January 2018, giving them a 29-game winning streak. They haven’t lost a fumble since October and quarterback Trevor Lawrence has thrown 202 passes without an interception, the longest streak in program history and the longest active streak among FBS quarterbacks. Yet somehow the Tigers are 5 1⁄2- point underdogs to LSU, a team without a title since 2007 and one that is making its playoff debut.
“Being here two years now and playing in a few games, you just see how much it doesn’t really matter who’s the favourite, and I think we as a team really understand that,” Lawrence told Sports Illustrated. “Not necessarily that we take offence to it, it’s just like it really doesn’t matter who the favourite is. You’ve got to go play the game.”
It might appear that all that experience doesn’t apply to the Tigers’ defence: Three star players on last season’s defensive line, Clelin Ferrell, Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence, were taken in the first round of the 2019 NFL draft, with cornerback Trayvon Mullen and defensive end Austin Bryant selected in the second and fourth round. Yet this season’s unit is one of the best in the Football Bowl Subdivision, and Clemson’s best hope of repeating as champions.
Heading into Monday’s national championship game in New Orleans, Clemson’s defence ranks No. 1 in FBS for points allowed per game (11.5), No. 1 for passing defence per game (151.5 yards), No. 2 for total defence per game (264.1 yards allowed) and No. 2 for yards allowed per play (4.2). It also forced one out of every five opponents’ drives to end with zero or negative yards, the fourth-highest mark in FBS. Much has been made of Clemson’s weak schedule this season. But Ohio State had the nation’s No. 1 scoring offence before last month’s Fiesta Bowl semifinal, where Clemson held the Buckeyes to a season-low 23 points and kept them scoreless in three trips inside the red zone. After taking all their opponents into account and Clemson’s performance against each, the Tigers boast the No. 1 opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency in FBS, per the Fremeau Efficiency Index. Fremeau also lists Clemson’s defence as the fourth-best since 2007, behind 2011Alabama, 2011 LSU and 2016 Alabama.
Clemson defensive co-ordinator Brent Venables faces a significant challenge in trying to slow down the LSU offence, starting with quarterback Joe Burrow, the Heisman Trophy winner and prospective No. 1 pick in this year’s NFL draft.
Burrow led the nation in adjusted completion rate (83 per cent), big-time throws (32 throws judged by Pro Football Focus to be difficult and of high value) and passer rating from a clean pocket (156.7). His PFF grade for throws into a tight window was nearly seven points higher than the nextbest passer this year (87.3 out of a possible 100).
Clemson has pressured opposing quarterbacks on more than 43 per cent of their drop backs but Burrow has stood tall in the pocket when pressured, completing 74 per cent of his passes for 1,556 yards and 19 touchdowns, both best in FBS, with just two interceptions, per data from Sports Info Solutions.
Clemson will need to rely on forcing mistakes while limiting its own. Clemson led the nation in turnover rate (19 per cent) and has committed just one turnover since Oct. 19. Clemson has produced a plus-14 turnover margin over its last seven games and hasn’t had a negative turnover margin in a game since it played North Carolina in September. Forcing LSU into turnovers would give Clemson extra possessions on offence while taking away scoring opportunities from the most-dynamic offence in the college ranks (48.9 points per game).
The key for Clemson will be its defensive leader, Isaiah Simmons. This year’s Butku s Award winner as the nation’s best college linebacker was used in a variety of situations. He’s been the team’s strong outside linebacker (“SAM”), a spy prowling the line of scrimmage and has also been dropped back in coverage as a safety. Pro Football Focus called him college football’s most versatile player.
“They use him the right way, I mean built ready for all parts of the field, he’s long, he’s athletic and he has speed and he’s disruptive,” LSU coach Ed Orgeron told reporters Wednesday. “You don’t know where he’s at, it’s not like they’re playing him as a base linebacker or up field. They play him in the middle of the field, they rush him and I think they use his skills very well. We need to know where he’s at all times on the field.”