Ontario voters split three ways
Survey indicates Liberals popular without leader, Ford’s approval rate rising
Ontario’s three major political parties look to be locked in a virtual tie for public support, a new poll commissioned by the Star found.
The Campaign Research survey concluded that the Progressive Conservatives and the Liberals would each have the backing of 30 per cent of voters if an election were held tomorrow, with the New Democrats at 26 per cent and the Greens at11per cent.
Campaign Research tested both the parties’ brands and the leaders’ names, with about half of those polled surveyed on the former and the other half on the latter.
Without leaders’ names attached, the Liberals had the support of 36 per cent of respondents, while the Tories 30 per cent, the NDP 21 per cent, and the Greens 10 per cent.
But when the leaders’ names were included — including Steven Del Duca as the presumed next leader of the Liberals — the findings changed. In that case, the Tories had the support of 32 per cent, the Liberals 25 per cent, the NDP 31 per cent and the Greens 10 per cent.
“It’s way too soon to say who’s going to win the election in 2022 … but rumours of Doug Ford’s demise have been greatly exaggerated,” Campaign Research principal Nick Kouvalis said Tuesday. “He’s polling slightly higher than the PC brand.”
Indeed, Ford’s slide in popularity appears to have halted after months in a downward spiral.
Last July, a poll found that just 20 per cent of respondents approved of the premier’s performance while 69 per cent disapproved — a net approval score of -49 per cent. Weeks earlier, Ford was loudly booed by thousands of people last June at the Toronto Raptors’ victory celebration in Nathan Phillips Square.
In the new poll, however, Ford’s net rating is up to -32 per cent, with 29 per cent approving of his performance and 61 per cent disapproving.
In comparison, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath had an overall rating of +15 per cent, with 41 per cent approving and 26 per cent disapproving of her performance.
Asked if they approved or disapproved of the job Del Duca was doing as a candidate for leadership of the Liberals, 21per cent approved,19 per cent disapproved and 61 per cent said they didn’t know or weren’t sure.
Campaign Research polled 1,536 people between Thursday and Sunday using Maru Blue’s online panel. It is an opt-in poll. For comparison purposes, a randomly selected sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 points, 19 times out of 20.
“Doug Ford’s approval rating over the past two months has gone up by18 points. That’s very significant,” said Kouvalis, whose firm polls monthly for private-sector clients and found Ford at -50 per cent in December.
“It may be related to this education dispute. That could be why his approval rating has gone up,” the veteran pollster said, referring to the ongoing teachers’ strikes that have affected all Ontario public schools.
“On the re-election question, the Conservatives are polling at 30 per cent, but 36 per cent support them on (increasing average high school) class sizes and 44 per cent support back to work legislation” to end the dispute, he said.
He noted that the poll found 45 per cent of respondents support the 1 per cent salary increase for teachers that the government is offering.
Kouvalis said such findings suggest “the teachers have inadvertently put some wind in Doug Ford’s sails and improved his job approval rating.”
The poll found 52 per cent of respondents sided with the teachers in their opposition to high school class sizes being raised to an average of 25 students from the current 22.5, while 36 per cent backed the Tories’ proposed change.
Asked if they supported the teachers’ demand for a two per cent cost of living wage increase or the government’s one per cent offer, 45 per cent sided with the Tories and 35 per cent with educators.
Thirteen per cent backed neither side and eight per cent weren’t sure.