Darkest days in the past, but plenty of work remains to do
The Blue Jays will open spring training this week with something they haven’t possessed the last couple of years: a sense of optimism.
They won’t be pegged by many experts to make the post-season, but the club did enough this winter to convince its players they at least have a chance. When faced with the prospect of a gruelling 162-game schedule over the course of six months, that must count for something.
After an eventful off-season, there’s enough talent to envision how this rebuild might come together.
The top of Toronto’s lineup is a strength and should only get better as Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. continue to mature. Hyun-Jin Ryu provides a front-line starter option, and a second one might be arriving soon with the promotion of top prospect Nate Pearson.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. offers upside in left, and there’s a solid foundation behind the plate with the catching duo of Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire. Closer Ken Giles remains a likely midseason trade chip, but in the short term he will form the backbone of the bullpen and should help limit the number of late-inning collapses. Add in young arms such as Ryan Borucki and Anthony Kay and there are a lot of quality pieces.
For the first time since at least 2017, the division also provides hope. Instead of looking up at three favourites, Toronto only has to deal with two after Boston waved the white flag by trading away Mookie Betts. The Yankees and Rays are legitimate contenders, but the Orioles continue to tread water and the American League East is no longer as deep as it once was. The window of opportunity is there.
That might be enough to convince some people that the rebuild is ahead of schedule and the Jays will be ready to contend earlier than anticipated. In theory, it’s possible, but that shouldn’t be the expectation.
Keep in mind, Toronto won just 67 games last year and narrowly avoided its first 100loss season since 1979. While the new recruits and internal progression will help, this remains an uphill climb, one that’s going to take some time to complete.
The Jays’ weaknesses are just as apparent as their strengths. In 2019, Toronto’s outfielders ranked near the bottom of the league in almost every major statistical category. Out of 30 teams, the Jays finished last in average (.224) and on-base percentage (.286), 27th in wRC+ (87) and fWAR (1.6). Even with a bump in numbers from Gurriel, the overall production of this unit will be an issue. Quite clearly, this is a spot that needs to be addressed, but so far has been left untouched.
Similar things could be said about first base and designated hitter. There was a lot to like about the signing of bounceback candidate Travis Shaw, and there’s just as much to question. Shaw was one of the worst hitters in baseball last season with a .551 OPS across 230 at-bats for the Brewers. Handing a guaranteed job to someone who put up those numbers comes with a ton of risk. Shaw flashed plenty of power before. Toronto expects him to do it again, but until it happens first base will be considered a liability.
Toronto seems likely to rotate multiple hitters through the DH spot and some of the candidates will come from the underperforming group of outfielders. Derek Fisher remains a priority, and DH is one way to get his bat into the lineup. If Teoscar Hernandez’s issues in centre continue, he may be forced into the role as well. Rowdy Tellez offers power as another option, but it comes with a .293 OBP. Lots of candidates, an equal number of question marks.
There should also be concerns about the bullpen, which lacks experience and defined roles in front of Giles. Toronto relievers ranked 15th in the majors last season with a 4.35 ERA, and it’s one area of the team that might see a bit of regression. Post-season star Daniel Hudson is long gone, so too is former set-up man Ryan Tepera and David Phelps.
There’s going to be a bullpen-by-committee approach and it might take a little while for manager Charlie Montoyo to figure everything out. Wilmer Font, Anthony Bass, Jake Petricka, Rafael Dolis and Jordan Romano will compete for high-leverage roles, offering upside and somewhat questionable track records. The left side remains almost completely bare. Depending on how you want to look at this, Toronto’s glass is either half full or half empty. It’s far too premature to get excited about the Jays’ chances of causing a disruption to the 2020 standings, but with proper growth they might be in position to strike the year after that.
The good news is that the darkest days of this rebuild should be over. Barring something catastrophic, starts will no longer be wasted on veteran castoffs such as Clayton Richard, Edwin Jackson and Clay Buchholz.
Instead, there will be a more competent group to begin the year and a stable of young arms to back them up.
There will be reasons to tune in almost every day. Individual games might not hold much significance in the standings, but the players involved will have a big say in the future. Last year was about integrating the rookies. This year, it will be about watching them grow, seeing which pieces fit and which ones need to be cast aside.
The journey back to respectability is far from over, but the light at the end of the tunnel should become visible soon.