Martin Regg Cohn,

At first glance, the big numbers in Wednesday’s emergency economic update look dramatically, monumentally large.

But make no mistake, they are not.

This is not the mini-budget Premier Doug Ford ever imagined on his watch, pumping an additional $9 billion into the economy. Nor did Finance Minister Rod Phillips fathom a deficit of $20.5 billion — the biggest ever recorded in Ontario’s history.

Still, it is not nearly enough. This is not a question of economic ideology, it is an economic emergency.

Elected on a promise to cut spending, Ford’s government now has no choice but to spend like there’s no tomorrow. It is the only way to safeguard tomorrow.

Today is only the start. There must be much more to come.

Back in the last economic upheaval of 2009-10, Ontario made plans for an even bigger $21.3 billion deficit. Factor in inflation and it turns out the Progressive Conservatives are holding back today compared to the crisis of a decade ago, despite dramatically worse circumstances.

Relief is being doled out more surgically than strategically. The measures will not be nearly enough to relieve the needs of people without jobs, businesses without customers, an economy without cash flow — and not least, people without the COVID-19 tests they need or the ventilators they cannot live without.

Yes, there are big increases for overstretched hospitals and public health agencies (a mere year after they faced funding cuts in Ford’s first budget). There will be cheaper daytime hydro rates, emergency funding for some child care, a onetime baby bonus of $200.

It is a long list, but it does not go far enough nor deep enough. As death tolls rise in the days to come, we need to keep hope alive.

But never mind the details for a moment. The numbers are mostly made up — not on the back of a napkin but in the bowels of the finance ministry, sealed off by fear of the novel coronavirus, locked up in strict secrecy, and trapped by the uncertainty of an economic contagion. Ontario’s “economic growth” is projected to be zero — neither negative nor positive, which is neither true nor false. It is merely a planning assumption conjured up out of thin air by government economists grasping for a placeholder, building their forecasts on a premise without foundation.

Again, the big numbers don’t matter. What matters is the signal — a public promise — by the premier and his finance minister this week to do whatever it takes no matter the cost, to stop at nothing even if it means emptying the till.

Economists talk about “the invisible hand” of market forces, but that theory has been disrupted by an invisible virus. What is paramount is public confidence, and over time consumer confidence, without which there can be no business confidence nor, ultimately, confidence in government.

In fairness, we must also acknowledge the fiction that Ontario’s government, of any partisan stripe, has what it takes to bail out the province. As Ford noted this week, provincial governments — even Canada’s biggest and richest — lack the “fiscal capacity” to turn things around.

It is the federal government that has the much bigger and robust tax revenues, spending powers and monetary policies to influence economic events. Interest rates are controlled by the Bank of Canada, which also controls the money supply and regulates lending by banks at a time when borrowers desperately need more manoeuvring room.

But history shows that Ontario can and must still do everything within its power, for no matter how limited its fiscal capacity, it still has political capacity. The budgetary figures from a decade ago put today’s projections in perspective.

The numbers back then, as government officials later admitted, were mostly wild guesses. As it turned out, the final deficit figure for 2009-10 came in at $19.3 billion ($2 billion below that original daunting projection of $21.3 billion), and over the next few years the numbers were whittled down to a more or less balanced budget before going back up again in the pre-election fever of 2018 (unrelated to any virus).

But even if the numbers were made up, the point is that the

Liberal government of the day meant what it said when it promised to rescue Ontario’s economy by whatever means necessary. That big bet paid off with an economic rebound that generated (and regenerated) hundreds of thousands of jobs, locking in the remarkably low unemployment rates that preceded this pandemic.

No one predicted a historic pandemic in this budget cycle. Now, the premier and his government must help us survive a health crisis and economic crisis not seen in our lifetimes, for lives are at stake and livelihoods are in the balance. As a rookie finance minister, Phillips prides himself on his prudence and his abhorrence of deficits, but the only prudent path is to bet heavily on Ontario’s future. This week’s economic update, with its wild guesses and measured bets, is destined to be outdated soon as events change rapidly.

It is not a bad beginning, but it is not good enough. At a time when we must both heal the sick and revive an ailing economy, there is not much time left for Phillips and Ford to keep their promise to do whatever it takes.