‘Mask diplomacy’ may be at work to free Kovrig, Spavor
China-watchers, former envoys differ in opinion on whether it will work
VANCOUVER— Recent co-operation between Beijing and Ottawa over medical equipment — China sent millions of masks to Canada to help battle the coronavirus — could be good news for two Canadians being detained in mainland China, according to one expert on relations between the two countries.
Charles Burton, a former diplomat and China expert with the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Ottawa, said part of the reason China could release Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, is fear they could catch COVID- 19 while in detention at secret locations in China.
“I think that’s a legitimate concern,” Burton said. “They are going to be in very crowded conditions, the standard of hygiene is very low and clearly they’re going to be in a weakened state because of the constant interrogation and the lousy food.”
If one of the men were to die in custody, it could strain relations between Canada and China even further at a time when Beijing is hoping the COVID-19 pandemic is an opportunity to pry Canada away from its relationship with the United States, he added. So, it’s something Beijing will likely try to avoid.
But at the same time, a former ambassador to China for Canada said he thinks Beijing ’s friendly face is just a “diplomacy mask,” and that Spavor and Kovrig will remain in custody.
Over the weekend, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said “millions” of masks from China were on the way to Canada after Ottawa procured them. When China was in the midst of its outbreak in January, Canada sent a reported 16 tonnes of medical supplies there. And China recently made a similar donation back to Canada.
Kovrig and Spavor were arrested in China in late 2018 shortly after Meng Wanzhou, the CFO of Huawei, a Chinese tech company, was arrested in Vancouver at the behest of the U.S. Meng faces charges in the U.S. including fraud, and is currently under house arrest in one of her Vancouver mansions fighting extradition. Meanwhile, Kovrig, a consultant, and Spavor, a businessman, were hit with what many experts say are bogus charges of espionage in retaliation for the Meng arrest. They are being held in secret locations in China.
But, Burton said, if the tactic is meant to pressure Canada into releasing Meng, it hasn’t worked and China may be ready to give up on it to try to warm relations again. He says it seems Beijing is hoping poor handling of the response to the pandemic by U.S. officials could be an opportunity to come between Washington and Ottawa.
Burton says China’s tactics with Kovrig and Spavor has worked against them. “I think they’d probably go back to trying to leverage people who are close to the government to get some sort of decision” on Wanzhou.
However, Canada’s former ambassador to China, Guy SaintJacques, isn’t optimistic the two are close to being released. He said China is likely sending the masks as part of a public relations move because it botched its own handling of the coronavirus at the start of the outbreak. He doubts it will result in concrete measures to mend relations such as releasing the men. “The fact is that China has embarked on what I call its mask of diplomacy,” he said.
Mainland China is also making efforts to paint its authoritarian system as superior during the crisis and handing out medical supplies to other nations is part of the effort, he said.