Canada watches as Quebec reopens schools
Since COVID-19 caught up with Canada, no government decision has been quite as controversial as the bid by Quebec Premier François Legault to take the lead on the rest of the country by reopening part of his province’s school system later this month.
Based on the current plan, all Quebec elementary schools and child-care centres would be operating by the week after Victoria Day.
No other provincial government is planning to restart its school system in May although some — such as British Columbia and Ontario — have kept open the option of doing so in June.
Over the past two months, Legault has often led by example, emerging, in the process as an influential figure on the federal-provincial scene.
In particular, he and his Ontario counterpart, Doug Ford, have tended to stand shoulder to shoulder in their dealings with Justin Trudeau’s federal government.
The two sister provinces — with a few variations — also acted in tandem to pause their economies.
As in the improbable case of PQ and Tory premiers Lucien Bouchard and Mike Harris two decades ago, the connection between Ford and Legault is said to be grounded in genuine friendship.
In this instance though, Legault is essentially on his own. Over the past week, Ford and the other premiers have made it clear that they are content to watch Quebec test these waters without getting their own feet wet.
The fact is that, going forward, events in Quebec could go some way to influence the course of other provinces.
There is not, at this juncture, a probable scenario that would see COVID-19 neutralized anytime soon.
But nor is it plausible to consign children to their homes — as they have been for more seven weeks — for the 12 to 24 months it could take to turn the corner on the pandemic.
Moreover, the return to regular child-care and school operations has to be a cornerstone of any plan to reopen the economy.
On that basis, the windswept bridge that Legault is about to cross is one that every other premier will eventually have venture on. When it comes to opening schools, the question every pandemic-stricken jurisdiction across the world faces is not if but when.
Should Quebec — even as it remains the provincial hot spot of the pandemic in Canada — succeed in operating part of its school system this month without triggering a major COVID-19 flare-up, every other premier will feel more confident about following suit.
A negative outcome in Quebec would similarly inform the other provinces — and lower public pressure for a return in the short term to some sort of a more normal school and childcare day.
Politics being what it is, there is another reason why other government leaders will be watching Quebec closely.
Canada’s first ministers have all earned kudos for their handling of the pandemic to date, but none has accumulated quite as much political capital as Legault.
Since mid-March, the premier’s approval rating has soared to unprecedented levels. In some polls, he has scored in the mid-nineties, an unheard-of result in normal circumstances.
Neither the fact that Quebec has been and remains the province hardest hit by the pandemic, nor the deadly havoc COVID-19 is still wreaking in dozens of seniors’ residences have so far really dented Legault’s armour.
It helps that the premier leads a first-time government, with no record to weigh it down as it sails around the pandemic shoals.
With Legault yet to reach the midpoint of his first term in office, it is hard for his opposition critics to blame the Coalition Avenir Québec for policy failures that often originated on their watch in government.
It also helps that two of the three opposition parties in the national assembly — the Liberals and the Parti Québécois — are in the midst of leadership campaigns, a process still on pause as a result of the pandemic.
All of that being said, Legault’s tight schedule for reopening schools has predictably generated more headwind in Quebec than any of his previous pandemic-related announcements.
In its wake, the massive approval that has so far attended the premier’s management of COVID-19 has become more conditional.
In response, Legault has taken pains to stress that he still has enough runway to abort the resumption of classes in Montreal, should circumstances warrant.
Quebec’s premier may be about to find out just how much of the political capital he and his fellow premiers accumulated over the past seven weeks is made up of fool’s gold.