Americans venturing farther from home

Lockdown losing steam, cellphone data suggests

Americans are on the move again, indicating that adherence to stay-at-home orders may be wearing off as the pandemic drags on.

Over a three-week period ending late last month, the share of Americans staying close to home has steadily shrunk, according to an Inquirer analysis of data provided by a New York City data analysis firm that aggregates anonymous cellphone location information from 15 million people.

The data shows that New Jersey and Pennsylvania have some the largest shares of people staying indoors. But as with the rest of the U.S., fewer area residents are staying home as the weather gets warmer, the outbreak lasts longer, and the number of new cases flattens.

The improved weather and the sheer duration of the stayat-home orders could explain why more people are travelling farther, said Vinod Venkatraman, director of Temple University’s Center for Applied Research in Decision Making.

Residents may be suffering from “behavioural fatigue,” in which they lose motivation to maintain new habits, he said. And the trend could snowball.

“You don’t want to be the first one to do it because, in some ways, you’re worried about what others are going to think,” he added. “But when other people are doing it, you just feel like, ‘Ok, I’m still doing my best by social distancing or whatever, but I want to do something different.’ ”

The data looked at mobility across the nation from March 2 through April 27. Across the county, it showed, the percentage of people travelling no more than a kilometre daily fell from 53.1 to 49.6 per cent over the three-week period.

At the same time, the percentage travelling up to 15 kilometres per week grew from 29 to 31 per cent. There was a similar, if even slightly greater, bump in those travelling more than 15 kilometres.

Among the 50 states, New Jersey trailed only New York, the epicentre of the pandemic, in its share of residents locking down, according to the information from Cuebiq, the datacollection and analysis firm.

Experts and public officials were hesitant to draw conclusions from the data, but stressed the U.S. isn’t through the most dangerous stage of the pandemic and people should maintain social distance.

Epidemiologists said a small erosion of Americans staying indoors would not itself be worrisome — provided people are taking precautions such as wearing masks and staying two metres apart.

However, it could be more troubling if the trend continues and if residents are in regular, close contact with more people.