Olympics: Tokyo Games unlikely to happen in 2021, virus experts warn

Tokyo’s postponed Olympics is unlikely to take place even in 2021 as the coronavirus pandemic may not be fully contained around the world by then, a growing number of infectious disease experts warn.

The highly contagious virus will be at various stages of spread and infection in different countries by next summer, making it hard to pull off a largescale international event, some health policy experts say. Under such a scenario, guests and athletes from more than 200 countries and regions would require extensive testing and quarantines — a logistical process that may not be feasible.

“Japan may be able to contain the virus by next year’s Games” but other regions like the U.S., Africa or Brazil may not, creating an uneven playing field for athletes, said Norio Sugaya, a visiting professor at Keio University’s School of Medicine in Tokyo and a member of a World Health Organization panel advising on pandemic influenza. “It’s going to be tough to hold the Olympics.”

Sugaya’s concern is echoed by

Yoshito Niki, a visiting professor of infectious disease at Showa University, who warned that the world will need at least two years to contain the virus as infections return in the northern and southern hemispheres when they enter their winter seasons. If the Games are to be pushed ahead regardless, spectators would have to be shut out and athletes would have to travel to Japan a month in advance for testing, he said.

If extensive testing and quarantining of guests are needed, that would add to the massive logistical task of rescheduling the Games, which include rearranging contractors, securing venues and ensuring the multitude of stakeholder interests are aligned. At stake are billions of dollars in sponsorship money and broadcast rights.

A timely development of a vaccine would be one sliver of hope, but even that’s optimistic as it may take three years for it to reach some of the poorer countries, Niki said. While more than 100 experimental vaccines are in some stage of development, according to the WHO, it will take more than a year to ensure their effectiveness and safety, according to Sugaya. Japan’s Olympics Minister Seiko Hashimoto said Friday that the Games will not hinge on the development of a vaccine.

Organizers and Japanese government officials have said that if the Games do not happen in 2021, then they will likely be cancelled. They are currently scheduled for July 23 to Aug. 8 of next year.

“If the virus isn’t contained by then, the Olympics will be difficult to pull off in its complete form,” Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said earlier this week.