It may be trickier to manage recovery

Overt partisan politics has taken a back seat for months as Canada has experienced a series of horrific tragedies. A Ukrainian airliner was shot down in January, killing 63 Canadian passengers. The worst massacre in our nation’s history took place in rural Nova Scotia. Hearts broke again with the loss of brave armed forces members in a NATO training exercise.

Meanwhile, COVID-19, refuses to release its hold, taking lives and exposing deep holes in our health system and particularly, in long-term care facilities.

If nothing else, tragedies remind us of the tremendous scope of government, as it provides temporary funds or military personnel. Judging from recent polls, the majority of Canadians are fully supportive of the efforts of both the prime minister and premiers. In fact, several leaders have received a

“crisis” bump in support, which is typical as voters will generally unite in the face of a common threat.

However, as provinces cautiously phase their economies toward an “open for business” sign, politics, too, is entering another phase — and it is a tricky one.

A leading graduate European business school, INSEAD, notes that this is the first time the world has ever shut itself down. As well, a McKinsey study warns that the “imminent restructuring of the global economic order” is necessary as governments must balance the twin imperatives of global health and economic risks. None of this will be easy.

So far, in Canada, strong collaboration between all government levels have functioned well, but co-operation may be strained as difficult decisions are announced. Secondly, it would be naı ve to think that partisan politics will not resume — that is the role of democracy.

Questions concerning sustainability of various government programs and whether economic help hinders the incentive to work are already being raised. Provinces that continue to lockdown borders may come under legal scrutiny as mobility rights enshrined in the Charter are threatened. Bailouts for companies, institutions and even sports organizations are being demanded.

Social and economic concerns will intersect as the deficit explodes. It is now estimated to reach $252.1 billion this year. Calls for provincial inquiries will continue to mount with the tragic long-term-care home deaths.

Without caution, the threads to prosperity could unravel as political ideologies fight for differing policies. Depending on your perspective, this is either a sign of a healthy democracy or an obstacle.

The federal government’s outreach to Canadians has been impressive, yet the Liberals remain in a tenuous minority government. A 2020 election may seem preposterous but while Andrew Scheer has recently denied that his party would seek an election during a health crisis, other Conservative leadership candidates have said they want an election soon after their August leadership convention.

The Liberals, buoyed by strong polls, may even decide to throw down the electoral gauntlet themselves.

Strong attention must be paid to the workings of our democracy even as we struggle to protect society with new norms. The House of Commons eventually sat in committee this week, both by Zoom and by smaller in-person representation, but it took weeks to negotiate the compromise.

In case of an electoral crisis, Elections Canada has structured an internal working group to examine physical distancing measures for polling stations; the capacity of the present voteby- mail system, and the safety of election workers. They note that “in an extreme case” the chief electoral officer could recommend to the government that any writ be withdrawn based on the advice of public health experts.

We are entering a dangerous time for any government. Self-preservation, an orderly society and strong messaging from all leaders have kept Canadians patient, but can that status quo be sustained? Can the same leaders who have recently performed well carry us into the future or will we demand change?

A lack of preparation has led the world into the present situation. Leaders and parties would be wise to perform their own risk assessments now. Who knows what lies ahead? Penny Collenette is an adjunct professor of law at the University of Ottawa and was a senior director of the Prime Minister’s Office for Jean Chrétien. She is a freelance contributing columnist for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: @penottawa