The lights are going out in Hong Kong
The lights are going out in Hong Kong. As the world remains focused on fighting COVID-19, China’s rulers are steadily pursuing their own agenda, and a key part of that is bringing the restive city-state to heel.
They took another big step this week when China’s tame national legislature adopted a “national security” plan that will give it sweeping powers to crack down on dissent in Hong Kong under the pretext of tackling subversion, terrorism and foreign interference.
No one should be fooled by this. The people of Hong Kong have demonstrated in the streets and at the ballot box over the past year that they oppose Beijing’s efforts to stamp out their basic political and legal rights, and they deserve the world’s support as China further undermines its promises to respect their autonomy.
Those promises are essential to the principle of “one country, two systems” contained in the treaty that transferred sovereignty over Hong Kong from Britain in China back in 1997.
It guaranteed political freedoms, a basically democratic governing system and a robust legal system in Hong Kong until 2047, rights that Hong Kong’s people have exercised fully over the years — much to the chagrin of Beijing’s increasingly touchy rulers. China has chipping away at the concept for years, and the new security law may well be the fatal blow.
Canada, along with Britain, Australia and the United States, is rightly concerned. The four countries warned this week that the new policy will “drastically erode Hong Kong’s autonomy and the system that made it so prosperous.” It raises the prospect, they say, that people in Hong Kong will face prosecution and long jail sentences for so-called political crimes — i.e. criticizing policies favoured by the Chinese Communist Party.
Canada has a special interest here, since some 300,000 Canadian citizens live in Hong Kong. They may soon be as vulnerable to arrest and prosecution for opposing Beijing’s policies as someone living in any other Chinese city. There, the government routinely uses national security laws to punish anyone who steps out of line.
Business people with no special interest in political activism will be vulnerable, too. Hong Kong has flourished in large part because they know they can count on the rule of law. Once Beijing compromises its legal system, they won’t be able to rely on that any more.
The implications are frightening. In China itself, we’ve seen how the authorities blatantly manipulate the law for political or diplomatic ends; the fate of the “two Michaels” jailed on trumped-up charges in blatant retaliation for the detention of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver is proof of that. Why would anyone risk a similar fate in Hong Kong if they have a choice?
So Hong Kong is bound to suffer if Beijing goes ahead with its plans. Protest and democratic activism will become far more dangerous. Simply doing business will come with a higher risk as well.
In the past Beijing has backed down when faced with local protest and international pushback. But the government of President Xi Jinping is clearly no longer in a mood to be dissuaded. On the contrary, under cover of the pandemic it has become more aggressive about pursuing its interests right across the board.
It’s been bullying its neighbours in the South China Sea. It’s been talking tough with Taiwan, dropping the word “peaceful” in its latest call for reunification with the island. And it’s been pushing back against any and all criticism from outside, fully aware that the rest of world has its hands full dealing with COVID-19.
It’s not at all clear what the world can usefully do, faced with this newly emboldened Chinese government.
The United States, traditionally the pace-setter in dealing with Beijing, has gone its own way under Donald Trump. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared this week that Hong Kong no longer has significant autonomy, indicating that the U.S. may be preparing to end special trade and economic relations with the territory.
In the past, that might well have given Beijing pause, but the Trump administration is so inconsistent that such a threat may not have the desired effect.
As for Canada and other smaller countries, they are effectively held hostage to China’s economic might. As much as they disapprove of its actions, they need access to its market and supplies of crucial goods (including PPE to fight the pandemic), at least in the medium term.
It would be emotionally satisfying to hit back at China with sanctions or boycotts, but that would only hurt us more than them. On the other hand, Canada should certainly not get in deeper with China — for example by allowing Huawei to be part of building the new 5G telecom network. On national security grounds alone Ottawa has no choice but to say no to Huawei.
At the same time, Canada and others must continue to call China out when it violates the very guarantees it made to the people of Hong Kong. At the very least, it may persuade Beijing to tread lightly about exercising the new powers it is grabbing.