COVID could supercharge green shift, advocates say

Environmentalists argue now is time to refocus economy on the climate

OTTAWA— The global pandemic may have temporarily sidelined Canada’s climate plan, but a range of stakeholders — from environmental advocates to experts from the world of finance — says the COVID-19 crisis gives the Liberal government the chance to supercharge the shift to a cleaner economy.

“It is a terrible opportunity,” said Isabelle Turcotte, director of federal policy at the Pembina Institute, a clean energy think tank. “Canadians have gone through a lot, and especially those on the front lines,” she explained. “We need to make sure the economic hurdles and the health crisis we’ve been through actually give us a window … to rebuilding better.”

In last year’s general election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberals returned to power in a minority Parliament after promising to advance their efforts to fight climate change. But since the pandemic hit, Trudeau and his top ministers have driven the machinery of government towards dealing with the twin crises of health and economic downturn brought on by the novel coronavirus.

“While our most urgent priority at this time must clearly be COVID-19, it remains the case that climate change presents a threat to our economic and physical well-being,” said Moira Kelly, press secretary to Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson, in a recent statement to the Star.

“When recovery begins, Canada will recover stronger and more resilient by continuing to invest in a greener future.”

That may be necessary if the country hopes to close the gap between its projected greenhouse gas emissions and its commitment under the international Paris Agreement to slash them to 30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. The Liberals have already promised to cut deeper than that by 2030 and hit net zero emissions by midcentury.

With the pandemic response taking up much of the government’s bandwidth, and with Parliament suspended until September, some environmentalists worry some aspects of the plan to hit these targets will be delayed. Consultations on the planned clean fuel standard — a federal regulation that promises deep emission reductions — have already been pushed back, though Wilkinson’s office says the government still expects them to come into force in 2022.

The government has also signalled it will officially increase its emissions target at the next United Nations climate summit. But the pandemic forced organizers to postpone that summit from this November to late 2021. Kelly, Wilkinson’s spokesperson, said the government still intends to announce a new target “at or before” the next climate summit.

Julia Levin, climate and energy program manager at Environmental Defence, said any delays in the government’s climate plans would be “very problematic” to the effort to slash emissions. That includes delays to promised legislation that would guide emissions reductions in five-year increments towards the ultimate goal of carbon neutrality. “We need the forward momentum that we had seen before COVID. We need it now more than ever,” said Levin.

But that path forward might look different now than it did before the pandemic, said Eric Campbell, a former adviser to the environment minister who now works as a consultant in Ottawa. Making fuel more expensive through new regulations, for instance, might be more difficult when people are struggling in a post-pandemic economy, he said.

The government is also spending massively on emergency aid programs, with the independent Parliamentary Budget Officer projecting a $252-billion deficit this year — and that’s before the government has turned to any future stimulus measures to help get out of the pandemic slump.

“COVID is going to put Canada in so much debt that any big spending ideas beyond what has already been committed in the past few years, I think, is unlikely,” Campbell said, referring to environmental initiatives from Ottawa. “Their hands are going to be tied in terms of where they can draw on the fiscal resources going forward.”

If Campbell is right, it might be the last opportunity in a while to accelerate a transition to a green economy. Giving the deep spending to address the crisis and potentially kick-start the economy, he predicted the political appetite for big government programs in the coming years might be overcome by the need to rein in spending.

“Through no fault of their own, the economy is now in a very precarious place,” he said of the Liberal government.

“It’s probably going to be the last good kick at the bucket.”

“When recovery begins, Canada will recover stronger and more resilient by continuing to invest in a greener future.”

MOIRA KELLY PRESS SECRETARY TO THE ENVIRONMENT MINISTER