Hot spots should make us rethink poverty

Big Number: $58,340. The average median household income in the 30 neighbourhoods with the highest per capita rates of COVID-19, compared to $82,360 in the 30 least-affected neighbourhoods — a difference of $24,020 per household

I’ve been seeing some articles over the last few months about how the COVID-19 pandemic will cause some of us to permanently rethink city living. “America’s biggest cities were already losing their allure. What happens next?” wondered a New York Times headline from mid-April.

In and around Toronto, there’s been talk of a return to a more suburban-centred culture — more driving, less transit. Office parks with parking lots instead of skyscrapers near subway stations. Houses over condos.

I don’t buy it. From the earliest days of this pandemic, the link between COVID-19 cases and urban density has never seemed clear. Sure, dense New York City was walloped, but dense cities in Asia managed to avoid runaway growth. If urban density alone led to virus spread, the worldwide data would show the big population centres overwhelmed with cases. It hasn’t. We now know a connection between density and virus spread isn’t showing up in Toronto’s local data either. Last week, the city released a neighbourhood-by-neighbourhood breakdown of COVID-19 cases to date. To check whether there was a link between the pandemic and people who live in denser areas, I looked at the 30 neighbourhoods with the highest per-capita caseload, and the 30 with the lowest.

Here’s what I found, using data from the city’s Neighbourhood Profiles: The average density across both groups was almost identical. The most-hit neighbourhoods have, on average, 6,075 residents per square kilometre. The least-hit neighbourhoods have 6,029. That’s what stats nerds might call a statistically insignificant difference.

But here’s something way more significant: That group of the 30 neighbourhoods with the most per-capita cases has a median household income of $58,340, on average. The group of the 30 least-hit neighbourhoods comes in at $82,360.

It’s a tale of two cities. In the hardest-hit neighbourhoods, the percentage of people living below the after-tax low-income measure averages 23 per cent, compared to 16 per cent in the least-affected neighbourhoods.

The pandemic is more a story about poverty than it is about density. The city’s data suggests poor people have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic. It’s the working class neighbourhoods — many of them located in the inner suburbs — with precarious jobs, long transit commutes and substandard housing, that have been at greater risk.

For city hall and the provincial and federal governments, this should illuminate the path forward. Addressing inequality and poverty should be a post-pandemic priority.

Because while, sure, urban living has had its challenges over the last few months, and residents may struggle with changes in the short- and medium-term, city life has a lot of good points in non-pandemic times. Poverty, on the other hand, always sucks.

I will admit there have been moments recently when I have lamented my decision to live in a small downtown home. There were days when I longed for the suburban house I grew up in, so spacious we had both a “family room” and a “living room” that served the exact same purpose. There were days when I wished I still owned a car, instead of having to fight for grocery store delivery slots. But I also recognize that this is temporary. In time, this will pass.

Without government action, though, poverty will endure as a deadly reality long after COVID-19, disproportionately affecting people of colour, new immigrants and people with disabilities.

In typical times, poor people in Toronto are more likely to die before the age of 75 than the rest of the population. Rates of cardiovascular disease and other chronic illnesses are higher.

And climate change, the other global crisis, is likely to affect people living in poverty more than the rest of us.

An exodus to the suburbs will only make things worse, limiting mobility options and further isolating lower-income neighbourhoods. Meanwhile, the data suggests wealthy people in big suburban homes could be just as safe in a downtown neighbourhood.

Leaving cities behind is the wrong conclusion. The pandemic should not cause us to rethink urban living. It should push us to end poverty.

STEVE RUSSELL TORONTO STAR FILE PHOTO The pandemic is more a story about poverty than it is about density, Matt Elliott writes. The city’s data suggests poor people have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic.