Acrimony began long before virus
There’s a bit of posturing that happens during every negotiation. One side makes an offer it knows has no chance of being accepted. The other party counters with an equally unrealistic demand, and after some back-and-forth the real talks usually begin.
The first two weeks of negotiations between Major League Baseball and the players association followed that predictable script. Owners and players presented their cases while simultaneously taking shots at each other through the media in a tired attempt to win over the court of public opinion.
The owners opened the talks by proposing an 82-game schedule and sliding salary cuts, with the top earners asked to make the biggest sacrifices. The players took a few days and then essentially ignored the offer entirely, countering with full prorated salaries for a 114-game schedule instead.
That led to Monday night’s development. Per ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the owners intend to make another counteroffer soon, which would see the league abandon its sliding scale of cuts and concede full prorated salaries. The offer, however, comes with one big caveat: a regular season consisting of just 50 games.
When news of the proposal first broke, it was met with optimism from fans and media alike. Players want to be paid their regular rate for 114 games. The owners are offering full pay for 50. Meet in the middle, return to the initial 82-game schedule idea and everyone is happy. Seems simple enough, right?
Not so fast. Nothing ever comes easy in baseball labour disputes and this one won’t be any different.
While hope remains for a compromise, there is still a great divide. It might seem like progress was made with each step of these talks, but the reality is little has been done to bridge the gap on the biggest issue of all: player compensation.
Salaries for the 2020 season over 162 games were initially estimated at $4.2 billion to $4.4 billion (U.S.), including bonuses. The union’s proposal called for approximately 70 per cent of games to be played, which would result in salaries falling to $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion. If the owners counter with 50 games, approximately 31 per cent of the original schedule, salaries would drop to $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion. The owners’ latest offer is still well under half of what the players are looking for in total dollars.
The owners don’t seem to care how many regular-season games are played as long as they get an expanded postseason. Playoff baseball is the league’s golden goose and securing the lucrative television dollars trumps everything else. The shorter the season, the fewer upfront costs the league has and — in their minds — if the players want more, they’ll have to accept further cuts to make it happen.
The union sees it much differently. The players continue to insist that a deal struck in March, which included prorated salaries for a shortened season, should be honoured and that they will accept no further pay reductions on a per-game basis. The owners’ latest proposal addresses that, but still comes with $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion in additional cuts by shortening the schedule even further. It’s another massive drop in pay, just in a different form.
Complicating matters, the clock is ticking. The league’s initial proposal called for camps to reopen on June 10, with the regular season to follow in early July. With players needing three weeks of training camp before resuming play, the only way that could still happen is if a deal is reached by the end of this week. On the surface that doesn’t seem overly realistic, but one positive here is that there should be additional wiggle room, if needed.
June 10 was an arbitrary date which allowed the league to provide optimism to fans while applying the pressure of a deadline to the union at the same time. Camps could just as easily reopen a couple of weeks later, with the regular season extended into mid-October. A 50-game schedule could begin as late as mid-August and still get done by a reasonable date. There’s more time to get something done than some might think.
However, as each day gets crossed out on the calendar, owners move one step closer to an even shorter season, which lowers their costs while keeping the post-season television revenue on the table. The union’s leverage will be threatening to sit out the year entirely — taking the post-season funds away from the owners, but damaging its own pocketbook at the same time.
Logic suggest cooler heads will ultimately prevail during these talks, because they usually do. Despite the posturing, baseball’s labour process has been relatively peaceful since 1995. Odds are this latest disagreement will get resolved as well.
But a pessimist would suggest this level of discord was inevitable and will only get worse from here. The owners and players were set to collide when the current collective agreement expires at the end of 2021. Solving problems that have been bubbling beneath the surface for years within a few weeks might be next to impossible. It’s a stance that’s hard to argue with.
Still, the best bet from this corner is that the two sides will eventually settle on a schedule in the range of 70 to 80 games with players agreeing to some form of reduced pay, but not as drastic as the owners previously proposed. That seems like a fair compromise based on where things stand, but it’s by no means a sure thing. One side has to move at least a bit, and so far the owners and players have refused to give an inch.