A look at PM’s (less than ideal) options in dealing with China
Freedom for two Canadians held in Chinese prisons may well depend on the steps Ottawa now takes to redefine its ever-souring relationship with Beijing.
The two countries have been locked in an increasingly tense impasse since December 2018, when Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor were arrested in China, just days after RCMP detained Chinese tech executive Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver on an extradition request from the United States.
Over the weekend, the Chinese embassy in Ottawa denied China had linked the arrests of Kovrig and Spavor with Canada’s arrest of Meng, and warned Canada against “megaphone diplomacy.” The Chinese embassy claimed a foreign ministry spokesman in Beijing merely quoted Kovrig’s wife last week when he said Meng’s release could “open a space” for the resolution of the detained Canadians’ cases. Meng’s arrest “is a grave political incident concocted by the United States to suppress Chinese high-tech enterprises and Huawei, and Canada is its accomplice,” said the embassy. “The Meng Wanzhou incident is totally different from the cases of the two Canadians in essence.”
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says his government is “looking at a range of options and measures” to bring the two Canadians home.
To achieve that, Canada has a range of options — but none are ideal.
More back-channel diplomacy An effort at informal, unofficial communication was tried last November to no avail, but many like former prime ministers Brian Mulroney and Jean Chretien have argued quiet talks and diplomacy is the only way.
Pros: It would keep Canada and China talking.
Cons: It could risk hardening positions. If hopes for compromise are raised and later dashed, China could decide that it’s had enough talking, and proceed with secret trials for the two Canadians on spying charges. They face minimum 10-year jail terms in an opaque system that has a 99 per cent conviction rate.
Hope The B.C. Supreme Court might eventually agree with Meng’s defence lawyers on their next two legal challenges and order her released on the grounds of an unconstitutional arrest.
Pros: It would take the decision out of the Trudeau government’s hands, provide a legal basis for refusing to surrender her to the U.S. and allow Meng to leave Canada, possibly clearing the way for China to release the two Michaels.
Cons: Hope is not a strategy. There’s no guarantee that Judge Heather Holmes will agree to release Meng even if she finds her rights were violated. Holmes may conclude the violation was minor, and decide that allowing the extradition and a full trial of the evidence in the United States would not undermine respect for the administration of justice in Canada.
Ban Huawei Ottawa could move to formally exclude the Chinese tech giant from participating in the development of Canada’s 5G wireless networks.
Pros: It would allow Canada to side with its closest ally the United States, and put it in line with other Five Eyes allies — the U.K., Australia and New Zealand — all of whom have banned or tightened the leash on Huawei in 5G networks.
Cons: It’s almost too late to wring any good out of such a declaration. The large three telecom companies in Canada have effectively made the decision during Ottawa’s years of indecision, opting not to use Huawei even in the absence of a federal ban. Beijing has already expressed its disgust for Canada’s treatment of Huawei, declaring Canada was acting as a puppet of the U.S. when it arrested Meng.
Trade moves Canada could redirect its trade focus on China to other AsiaPacific allies, like Taiwan, Malaysia, or Vietnam. Or it could attempt to limit Chinese imports to Canada in some way.
Pros: It would show Canada’s government is really angry.
Cons: It would hurt Canadian exporters, manufacturers and consumers, and likely result in retaliatory action by China. Applying sanctions could appear to be a hypocritical move, after Ottawa challenged China over its punitive limits on Canadian exports of canola at the World Trade Organization. And, like the rest of the world, Canada is reliant on China for much of the personal protective equipment and other medical supplies needed during the pandemic, and would not want to risk already fragile supply chains.
Toughen diplomatic pressure on China Former ambassador to China David Mulroney says Canada should find allies to challenge China’s “hostage diplomacy in shared statements, but also take common measures to reduce China-bound travel from each country.” Mulroney says if things remain unchanged, “it will be all but impossible for Canada to send a team to the Beijing Games in 2022. We should encourage others to join us in this, but should be prepared to take this step on our own.”
Pros: It would embarrass China.
Cons: It would likely cement China’s resolve to detain Kovrig and Spavor. It could backfire if no other allies sign on, and allow China to claim Canada is isolated and therefore is the party that’s acting in an improper fashion.
Stand up for Hong Kong protesters Canada could provide asylum and travel documents to known democratic activists whose freedom of movement is restricted, as a group of Canadians urged Ottawa on Monday.
Pros: It would send a strong signal of Canada’s respect for human rights and align Canada with allies like the U.K. and the U.S., which condemn China’s actions in Hong Kong.
Cons: It would anger China’s Communist Party rulers, who believe other countries are interfering in their sovereign exercise of jurisdiction. If Canada put out the welcome mat, it could also lead to a massive influx of arrivals from Hong Kong, where some 300,000 Canadian citizens live.
Target Chinese officials Canada could apply financial sanctions on individual Chinese officials using the Magnitsky law, which allows for asset freezes and travel bans on individuals who are accused of human rights abuses. Canada could mount an international campaign among allies who have also passed Magnitsky laws.
Pros: It would leverage a legal power to take aim at high-ranking Chinese officials or midranking jail officials to express the government’s extreme disapproval.
Cons: It may not be possible to individually identify the officials responsible for violating Kovrig’s and Spavor’s human rights. Taking aim at top Chinese officials could trigger massive reprisals against top Canadian officials and/or Canadian business and financial leaders.
Travel limits Ottawa could limit the number of tourists, students, business people or academics, or the number of immigrant applications it will process each year. Mulroney says that post-pandemic, the Canadian government should scale back its support for China-bound missions and visits, and warn Canadians they travel there at their own risk.
Pros: This would express Canada’s extreme concern and disapproval of China’s arbitrary detention of Canadian citizens.
Cons: It would most certainly trigger tit-for-tat measures, and the impact of such restrictions would be felt most by ordinary Canadian and Chinese families, researchers, businesspeople and academic institutions.
Funding cuts Canada could withdraw funding for the Asian Infrastructure Bank, as Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer has urged.
Pros: It would be a concrete action and show Canada is prepared to thumb its nose at the Beijing-based project.
Cons: It would have little real effect on the workings of the bank, which has more than 80 countries and two dozen others investing in it, and about $100 billion in capital. Canada’s contribution was pegged at little more than $250 million over five years.
Reject the extradition request Canada’s justice minister could decide that the prosecution has become overly politicized and order Meng released from custody.
Pros: It would assert Canada’s independence from the United States, and show Ottawa is willing to stand up to its closest ally if there is evidence that American prosecutors are pursuing a political agenda rather than enforcing criminal law.
Cons: Experts say it would be dynamite for our relationship with the U.S. if Canada says the Meng prosecution was politically motivated. Trudeau has also said that bowing to China's request to free Meng would put all Canadians abroad at risk by sending a message that foreign countries can get what they want from Canada by kidnapping its citizens and holding them for ransom.