Conservative insiders fear divided party

Increasingly hostile leadership race could sow seeds of division

Whoever becomes Conservative leader in August will face a tough job holding the party together after what has been an extraordinarily vitriolic and fractious campaign, Conservative MPs and party insiders tell the Star.

The party’s 2020 leadership race has included disqualifications and legal challenges, a failed attempt to kick one candidate out of caucus, public frustration with the party’s leadership committee, the threat of at least one defamation suit and, now, a police investigation into “hacking” allegations.

The relationship between the race’s two front-runners, Peter MacKay and Erin O’Toole, appears to be growing increasingly hostile — boiling over at the party’s French-language debate earlier this month, with the two men trading barbs and shouting over each other.

One non-aligned Conservative MP told the Star the race has created more division within caucus than the last leadership contest in 2017, with squabbles that would normally stay within the party being litigated in public.

“(The new leader will) need to quickly unite caucus, and swiftly unify caucus around some sort of vision for the country that gets everybody working in the same direction,” said the MP, who asked for anonymity to discuss internal caucus dynamics, in an interview Monday.

Leadership contests, by nature, split a party into camps. But unlike the 2017 race — where 13 candidates competed for the leadership, including several sitting MPs — the Conservative caucus is roughly divided in two.

MacKay has secured the endorsement of 56 sitting MPs and senators, while O’Toole has the support of 36. Leslyn Lewis, a Toronto lawyer and social conservative, has picked up a handful of MP endorsements, while Derek Sloan has received no caucus support.

The dynamic in this race has some significant differences than 2017 campaign, according to Hamish Marshall, who ran Andrew Scheer’s successful leadership bid and the Conservatives’ 2019 election campaign.

The front-runner in 2017, Maxime Bernier, had virtually no caucus support despite polling at the head of the leadership pack. And while Scheer and O’Toole were competing for the same votes, there wasn’t “a lot of vitriol” between the two campaigns, Marshall said.

But even after the comparatively cordial 2017 race, Scheer and his team spent a lot of time and energy working to repair rifts. Former rivals like O’Toole, Lisa Raitt, and Bernier were given prominent critic portfolios. Same with non-aligned MPs like Pierre Poilievre, who remains the party’s finance critic.

“The dynamic now is very different, because you’ve got two big, big blocks supporting each guy,” Marshall said.

“And there’s a lot of dirt being thrown.”

The divisions within caucus are not simply personal, but include ideological — and regional — factors. While no western Conservative stepped into the race, the issues facing the party’s heartland are still front and centre.

On Monday, the Hill Times reported that Calgary Midnapore MP Stephanie Kusie — an O’Toole backer — warned that a

MacKay victory could create problems for party unity. Kusie, who declined an interview with the Star, told the Ottawa paper that MacKay would have to appoint both Western Canadian MPs and social conservatives to prominent roles to smooth things over.

Otherwise, Kusie said, some of those MPs could leave the fold.

At the same time, the Conservatives are faced with the prospect of a more organized populist party in their backyard. Jay Hill, a former Harper cabinet minister, has agreed to temporarily run the “Wexit” party — a western separatist movement.

While “Wexit” has been dismissed as a fringe party, Hill is well-known and respected within Conservative circles. Asked if the movement had any chance at picking up political momentum, Marshall immediately said “yes.”

“The potential is there,” Marshall said.