Is this good news or bad news? That depends who you ask,
Health, economy experts divided over turning city into one of league’s hubs
The good news: Toronto and Edmonton are expected to be named hub cities for the National Hockey League’s impending post-COVID-19 return, bringing the promise of cultural reinvigoration, economic boon and unprecedented home-ice advantage for the Leafs and Oilers throughout the playoffs.
The bad news: With the arrival of hundreds of athletes, coaches, trainers and support staff to the downtown cores of the two cities comes new risks of a fresh wave of COVID-19 cases that could hit low-wage service staff hardest and quickly erase months of progress toward reopening the economy.
It is a cost-benefit analysis that divides health and economic experts and raises fascinating questions about social priorities, the true economic benefits of sporting events and the forensics of managing a massive influx of people from one the world’s hardest-hit COVID-19 countries.
“If these guys are staying at two hotels in the two cities, that doesn’t mean COVID-19 stays on the teams,” said David Fisman, an epidemiologist and professor at U of T’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health. “It potentially spills into housekeepers, concierges, drivers, kitchen staff. … From a purely public health point of view, equity point of view and probably even from an economic point of view, I don’t think I’d allow this in Toronto, if it were my call.”
If convening hundreds of hockey players can be accomplished safely, why not any number of other vital public services, says Fisman.
“The NHL can pull out all the stops and make disease control ironclad for multimillionaire hockey players, but we can’t have as thoughtful a plan or approach for our schools?” he said. “The lack of equity in terms of how this plays out, the risk it potentially introduces and the message it sends at a time ICU’s are again filling up across North America — sorry, it seems pretty frivolous.”
While research shows sporting events do not typically bring economic riches to cities, this time is different, says David Raiha, adjunct research professor at the University of Western Ontario’s Ivey Business School.
He estimates the potential economic uptick from playoff hockey during a pandemic when there is little other entertainment available could hit $75 million for each hub city.
“Both these cities have an enormous amount of underutilized capacity. There’s all sorts of people waiting around to be employed for one reason or another,” he said.
The big winners will be hotels, food services, entertainment, transportation, security and logistics firms, he says.
“If things go well and there’s no outbreaks that come as a result of this, the cities are definitely better off,” he said. “But, if it leads to a wider outbreak in the cities and more prolonged lockdowns and restrictions, it won’t take a whole lot to wipe out the benefit entirely.”
Quantifying those odds is difficult. The league has said it will implement a “rigorous daily testing protocol” when games resume, including tests every evening that would produce results by the next morning. But health experts say even the most effective testing regime will still miss some percentage of infections. “It’s not going to take much to trigger more mini outbreaks, especially with people coming from the U.S. where there are cases going on,” said Christopher Labos, a Montrealbased epidemiologist.
“It takes a lot of people to put on a sporting event. If you think of the number of interactions in a day, from hotel staff cleaning rooms to food servers, all it will take is for one person to be COVID-19-positive for there to be more cases.”
Earlier this week the NHL confirmed 26 players have tested positive for COVID-19 since June 8 on top of another 11 previously identified.
The best protections for athletes are the same as those we’ve been hearing for months from public health officials.
Those arriving from the U.S. will be screened and forced to quarantine in their hotel rooms for two weeks to ensure they aren’t bringing in new cases. After that, they will be required to show strict adherence to physical distancing rules (with the notable caveat that they will be coming into intensely close contact with dozens of other players on the ice each game).
“It’s not a great idea,” said Labos. “If the NHL had cancelled the season and started in the winter, I would have been OK with it. We have to look at what is critical and necessary and what we can live without for a while.”
Andrew Morris, an infectious disease specialist at Toronto’s Mount Sinai Hospital, says the NHL’s plan to concentrate players in two cities to reduce travel is more responsible than what some other sports leagues have been proposing.
And the all-Canadian choices of Toronto and Edmonton as host cities is smart given their relatively lower COVID-19 rates compared with most places in the U.S., he says.
“If this were Dallas and Miami or Phoenix we were talking about, it would be a totally different discussion. I would be saying, ‘Crazy,’ ” he said.
There will still be infections, Morris says.
“That’s a no-brainer. But what they should be aiming for is no outbreak,” he said.
And, if the COVID-19 numbers start to spike in Toronto or Edmonton over the next several weeks, the analysis shifts again. “If the prevalence of disease is different in August or September, it’s going to be totally different,” he said. “The worst-case scenario is that we have a substantial outbreak facilitated by athletes, spread through staff they interact with related to food, equipment and facilities. Those people will be taking the disease back home to their communities.”
Richard Powers, associate professor at the Rotman School of Management who specializes in sports marketing, called the news of a Toronto-Edmonton base for the remainder of the NHL season “fantastic.”
“This is best-case scenario as far as Canada is concerned. This is a kick start to the economy in both cities. It sends a strong message that Canada has responded responsibly,” he said.
Still, it remains a “big gamble,” he said. “It’s a huge risk. But you have to give it to the NHL. They’re smart. They know what they’re doing. They will have established their tolerance level. And if they hit it, they will not hesitate to cancel it.”
And, as a lifelong Leafs fan, he sees another hometown advantage. “This is Toronto’s chance. We’ve got home ice advantage to get the Stanley Cup. Finally. This is part of our overall plan for domination. It’s played right into our hands.”