Support for Liberals drops, poll reveals
Though federal party still leads Tories, WE scandal has weakened trust
After enjoying strong public approval for his government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Justin Trudeau now sees that support slipping as he deals with the WE Charity ethics scandal.
An Abacus Data poll released Monday found 36 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the Liberals if an election were held tomorrow.
While that number represents a five percentage point lead over the Conservatives, it is also a drop of four percentage points from a similar poll at the end of June.
The minority Liberal government now faces a hostile opposition that’s zeroing in on the prime minister’s latest ethical scandal. Since the beginning of the month, the government has faced intense scrutiny over its proposal to contract out the administration of a summer grant program for students to WE Charity.
The deal was scrapped after it emerged that Trudeau had taken part in discussions about the contract, even though his mother and brother had been paid a combined $282,000 between 2016 and 2020 by the organization. WE Charity would have received $43.5 million from the government to deliver the $900-million program.
Trudeau and Finance Minister Bill Morneau, whose daughter works for the group, apologized last week for not recusing themselves from discussions around it. Both men are now being investigated by federal ethics commissioner Mario Dion over their participation in the matter.
As a minority government, the Liberals risk triggering an early election if they can’t maintain the confidence of the House of Commons under Trudeau’s leadership.
On Monday, outgoing federal Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer said he’d defer any decision about toppling the government to his successor, who is set to be chosen next month, during what he called “a unique period of time for our Parliament and for the country.” Representatives for the two frontrunners to replace Scheer, Erin O’Toole and Peter MacKay, did not respond to questions from the Star about whether they would trigger a motion of nonconfidence in the government upon becoming the next Conservative leader.
But that doesn’t mean there aren’t other alternatives, Scheer noted, suggesting Liberal MPs could “do the right thing” and choose someone else to lead their party. “Nothing says that they have to keep Justin Trudeau on as their leader,” Scheer said.
While Trudeau had been riding a wave of support during the pandemic, the Abacus poll shows positive impressions of Trudeau have taken a five percentage point hit over July. It found that 42 per cent of respondents had a positive view of the prime minister, compared with 36 per cent who said they have a negative view.
Of those polled by Abacus, 47 per cent said they’ve been following the WE Charity controversy closely or “pretty closely.” The poll also found that 53 per cent of respondents felt the government had handled the situation poorly. Abacus surveyed1,500 Canadians between July 13 and 16. It says the poll has a margin of error of 2.6 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
Zain Velji, a former Liberal campaign strategist and former campaign manager for Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi, said the WE controversy is an easy issue for Canadians to understand. “This element of the personal relationship with the family … when we’re looking at ‘Conflict of Interest: 101,’ it becomes really clear,” he said.
The WE controversy marks the third time Trudeau has been investigated following allegations of conflict of interest. He was found to have violated the rules for his conduct in the SNC-Lavalin affair, as well as for accepting a trip to a private island owned by the Aga Khan.
As a result, Velji said, its possible that voters have already made up their minds about Trudeau’s ethics as “a narrative that’s baked in.” If the ethics controversy remains central to opposition’s attacks on Trudeau, Velji said the “judgment issue” would be the Liberals’ greatest vulnerability.