Western Canada sees spike in COVID-19 cases

Increase in number of infected coincides with reopening stages

With 31 of the province’s 34 public health units on track to be in Stage 3 of reopening by the end of the week, epidemiologists are urging caution now that two Western provinces — wwhich are further ahead in their reopening plans — have more COVID-19 cases per capita than Ontario.

Alberta has been noted for its aggressive stages of reopening, wwhich included gyms and mov- ie theatres. It now has 19.3 active cases per 100,000 people, nearly double that of Ontario, which currently sits at 10.11 per 100,000. Saskatchewan, which allowed restaurants, gyms and stores to reopen in June and recently moved to open museums, movie theatres and casinos, has a per capita rate of active cases of 11.54 per 100,000.

Todd Coleman, an epidemiologist and assistant professor in health sciences at Wilfrid Laurier University, said this isn’t the first time we have witnessed scenarios in which increases in cases coincide with a loosening of restrictions. “We’ve seen a number of other countries wwhere they start easing restric- tions, and it just climbs right back up.” Coleman said.

By the end of this week, seven more regions in Ontario will move to Stage 3 of reopening: Durham, Halton, Hamilton, Niagara, Haldimand-Norfolk, Sarnia-Lambton and York. That will leave just three regions at Stage 2: Toronto, Peel and Windsor-Essex. Facilities allowed to reopen in Stage 3 include dine-in restaurants, convention centres, casinos, gyms and outdoor playgrounds.

GTA cases versus the rest of Ontario

While the number of new cases outside the Greater Toronto Area remains lower than those within the GTA, a concerning trend has emerged over the past several days: The rolling seven-day average for new cases of COVID-19 outside the GTA has risen from 33 on July 7 to 51.4 on Sunday. y Similarly, in the GTA, the rolling seven-day average for new cases has in- creased from 76.9 on July 12 to 97.1 on Sunday.

It’s a trend that’s “concerning,” says Raywat Deonandan, an associate professor and epidemiologist at the University of Ottawa. “Two weeks ago was when things started opening up more and people started spending more time together with their families and friends,” Deonandan said, adding that an uptick in cases means we can’t let our guard down. He added that society’s focus now should be on trying to find ways to open schools safely in the fall.

The Western provinces Alberta has experienced a grad- ual increase in cases since the province’s “permissive” Phase 2 reopening in the middle of June, says Jim Kellner, an in- fectious disease expert and pro- fessor at the University of Cal- gary’s Cumming School of Medicine.

The province was down to a single-digit rise in cases in early June, but in the past week, Alberta reported120 new cases on Thursday and another 105 on Friday. “We haven’t seen numbers like that since May,” said Kellner. “The most striking

thing is the age distribution.” Overall, 36 per cent of Alberta’s cases have been in the 20to-39 age group, but in the last week, he said that figure has risen to 44 per cent. In Canada, it’s 27 per cent.

In Phase 2, Alberta opened businesses including massage parlours, movie theatres, gyms, swimming pools and bingo halls. But the biggest change was the size of gatherings, says Kellner, including “household cohorts” of up to 15 people and outdoor gatherings of up to 200 at events. The province also allowed some groups such as sports teams and artistic performers to be in cohorts of up to 50 people, with the idea that social distancing would be maintained, but recognizing that wouldn’t always happen, says Kellner.

The province has universal testing and tests anywhere from 7,000 to 9,000 people a day. Results for symptomatic people are received in 24 hours, wwhile those who are nonsymp- tomatic get results in about four days. Alberta also has robust contact tracing.

The government has divided the province into 42 areas, based on population; an area goes on a “watch” if active cases exceed 10 or if the number of cases exceeds 50 per 100,000, says Kellner. The government hasn’t said what restrictions it wwill reimpose if the number of cases gets too high, he says.

In the last 10 days, Saskatchewan has also seen an uptick in cases, which have been as high as 50 on a recent day, a big number for a province with a total of just 943 cases to date.

“That is a concern,” said Nazeem Muhajarine, an epidemiologist and professor in commmunity health and epidemiolo- gy at the College of Medicine at the University of Saskatchewan. “That does tell us that we have to be vigilant and the virus is out there.” The province hasn’t been as forthcoming with data Muhajarine as Alberta or said Ontario, that makes it difficult to know where the outbreaks are occur- ring and in what age groups.

But as of last week, Saskatchewan introduced universal test- ing and he says there is aggressive contact tracing when cases aare identified. As in many other jurisdictions, Muhajarine said the fall and school reopening are still a concern. The province has organized a think tank to comb through emerging evidence around the world for best practices in places where schools have reopened. Cases have remained low in B. C. and Manitoba.